{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56eed9ee-e9b8-427b-8a6a-7d278db4a882", "symbol": "688389", "name": "Shenzhen Lifotronic Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.005, "architecture_energy": 28.896, "architecture_maturity": 96.238, "architecture_confidence": 81.344, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.02, "rotation_up": 26.86, "upward_expansion": 16.36, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 29.47, "downward_expansion": 61.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.804, 10.673273, 11.071558, 11.481392 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.07, "trend_reference": 12.071271, "distance_from_trend": -0.082947, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.018958, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.262932, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.410053, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.174951, "excess_performance": -0.131747, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.082947, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067155, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.262932, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057032, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124101, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006166, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.174951, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.596376, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13544344, "relative_activity": 1.340758, "balance": 0.596376, "dry_up": 1.309121, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067934, "annualized_volatility": 0.308451, "from_high_reference": -0.23816, "from_low_reference": 0.155532 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.071271, "fair_value_reference": 15.018958, "structural_low": 9.58, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.02381, "positive_rate": 0.592593, "directional_follow_through": 0.407407, "median_excess_return": 0.014704, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.165413, "worst_return": -0.123083, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.062403, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.028892, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.223955, "worst_return": -0.207378, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.073142, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.085213, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.039583, "worst_return": -0.200597, "sufficient": true }, { 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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.9, "volume": 18090060, "typical_volume": 10384076.75, "trend": 12.281386, "fair_value": 15.222622, "relative_strength": -11.265865, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.730029, "energy": 57.797154, "activity_lines": [ 10.576, 10.738035, 11.325071, 11.763213 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.24, "volume": 11071691, "typical_volume": 9983934.2, "trend": 12.192074, "fair_value": 15.148489, "relative_strength": -17.252486, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.463488, "energy": 52.163823, "activity_lines": [ 10.502667, 10.595134, 11.180796, 11.631511 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.92, "volume": 10192880, "typical_volume": 9967553.0, "trend": 12.124778, "fair_value": 15.082458, "relative_strength": -11.680767, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.308481, "energy": 37.71562, "activity_lines": [ 10.672667, 10.611091, 11.114087, 11.549442 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.07, "volume": 13544344, "typical_volume": 10102003.4, "trend": 12.071271, "fair_value": 15.018958, "relative_strength": -12.410053, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.005255, "energy": 28.896498, "activity_lines": [ 10.804, 10.673273, 11.071558, 11.481392 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }