{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56efc87b-3fad-47b9-81e2-f284391d2eb2", "symbol": "5301", "name": "CJW International Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.166, "architecture_energy": 84.344, "architecture_maturity": 96.55, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 25.16, "upward_expansion": 20.21, "deceleration": 38.16, "rotation_down": 63.78, "downward_expansion": 95.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.534, 5.808182, 6.402095, 7.163613 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 5.54, "trend_reference": 8.291333, "distance_from_trend": -0.331832, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.203507, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.677973, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -61.412901, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.540249, "excess_performance": -0.981621, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.331832, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176923, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.677973, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05461, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.614129, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042616, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.540249, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.411085, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50699, "relative_activity": 0.71339, "balance": 0.411085, "dry_up": 0.746559, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08456, "annualized_volatility": 0.404467, "from_high_reference": -0.662652, "from_low_reference": 0.073643 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.291333, "fair_value_reference": 17.203507, "structural_low": 5.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.022617, "positive_rate": 0.361111, "directional_follow_through": 0.638889, "median_excess_return": -0.053367, "regime_survival": 0.861111, "best_return": 0.872749, "worst_return": -0.210805, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.002995, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.101543, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.807229, "worst_return": -0.334746, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.040519, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.085429, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.570681, "worst_return": -0.429091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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7.391762, 8.187032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.09, "volume": 46896, "typical_volume": 73096.3, "trend": 8.984333, "fair_value": 17.9263, "relative_strength": -58.581149, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.287272, "energy": 71.345943, "activity_lines": [ 6.224667, 6.466727, 7.192524, 7.989419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.83, "volume": 28227, "typical_volume": 72753.35, "trend": 8.812, "fair_value": 17.749798, "relative_strength": -60.361709, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.235821, "energy": 80.323628, "activity_lines": [ 6.054, 6.313818, 6.991667, 7.785914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.4, "volume": 96143, "typical_volume": 69843.55, "trend": 8.638667, "fair_value": 17.569845, "relative_strength": -61.953832, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.578932, "energy": 71.714351, "activity_lines": [ 5.814667, 6.112182, 6.774238, 7.565785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.34, "volume": 37156, "typical_volume": 69789.35, "trend": 8.475, "fair_value": 17.377008, "relative_strength": -62.390603, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.206307, "energy": 90.981849, "activity_lines": [ 5.614, 5.928, 6.568857, 7.352968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 5.54, "volume": 50699, "typical_volume": 71067.75, "trend": 8.291333, "fair_value": 17.203507, "relative_strength": -61.412901, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.166228, "energy": 84.343677, "activity_lines": [ 5.534, 5.808182, 6.402095, 7.163613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }