{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56f07434-efb0-4b34-abef-3accda2d8b07", "symbol": "XMMO", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR S&P MIDCAP MOMENTUM ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 59.558, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 8.9, "architecture_energy": 15.637, "architecture_maturity": 52.06, "architecture_confidence": 88.699, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.37, "rotation_up": 17.08, "upward_expansion": 40.77, "deceleration": 87.08, "rotation_down": 37.38, "downward_expansion": 32.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 158.902667, 161.112462, 162.391751, 159.651079 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 161.98, "trend_reference": 155.383736, "distance_from_trend": 0.042451, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 122.095505, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.326666, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.489935, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.106461, "excess_performance": -0.019164, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042451, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057083, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.326666, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111914, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014899, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083203, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.106461, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.666796, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1733891, "relative_activity": 0.908353, "balance": 0.666796, "dry_up": 1.012717, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051695, "annualized_volatility": 0.178971, "from_high_reference": -0.068759, "from_low_reference": 0.263758 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 155.383736, "fair_value_reference": 122.095505, "structural_low": 138.525, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.014839, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.000184, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.037547, "worst_return": -0.064687, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.005034, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.003555, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.090535, "worst_return": -0.178642, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.062948, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.006165, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.368437, "worst_return": -0.190128, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 2151194, "typical_volume": 1843661.35, "trend": 153.583833, "fair_value": 120.593394, "relative_strength": -0.524317, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.237728, "energy": 20.156513, "activity_lines": [ 161.77221, 164.214499, 162.500181, 158.744461 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 160.27, "volume": 1771690, "typical_volume": 1849140.5, "trend": 154.216715, "fair_value": 121.099503, "relative_strength": 2.018168, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.445995, "energy": 21.629256, "activity_lines": [ 160.503333, 163.336351, 162.670403, 159.175826 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 154.29, "volume": 2075646, "typical_volume": 1890922.5, "trend": 154.686867, "fair_value": 121.571312, "relative_strength": -2.836498, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.462853, "energy": 16.246307, "activity_lines": [ 157.995333, 161.431922, 162.192717, 159.180554 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 161.98, "volume": 1733891, "typical_volume": 1908830.15, "trend": 155.383736, "fair_value": 122.095505, "relative_strength": -1.489935, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.900197, "energy": 15.637331, "activity_lines": [ 158.902667, 161.112462, 162.391751, 159.651079 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }