{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56f66e35-6642-45c8-85ee-929e8153c557", "symbol": "JAGU", "name": "JPM Global AggregateBond Active UCITS ETF - USD Hedged (acc)", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 1.942, "architecture_energy": 13.169, "architecture_maturity": 28.44, "architecture_confidence": 42.981, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 67.03, "rotation_up": 20.72, "upward_expansion": 23.28, "deceleration": 66.88, "rotation_down": 47.58, "downward_expansion": 32.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.7244, 11.749564, 11.730714, 11.72031 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 11.76, "trend_reference": 11.721067, "distance_from_trend": 0.003322, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.175398, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.052312, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.259316, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.001274, "excess_performance": -0.084157, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003322, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002655, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.052312, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000424, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.092593, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068634, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.001274, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.395217, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.395217, "dry_up": 0.228051, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006414, "annualized_volatility": 0.043653, "from_high_reference": -0.010934, "from_low_reference": 0.029592 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.721067, "fair_value_reference": 11.175398, "structural_low": 11.5185, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.008123, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.030606, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.011098, "worst_return": 0.005149, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.003904, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.088197, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.003904, "worst_return": 0.003904, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002141, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003196, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.02709, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010061, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", 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11.767218, 11.722705, 11.720458 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.7385, "volume": 16561, "typical_volume": 52304.25, "trend": 11.718233, "fair_value": 11.16432, "relative_strength": -9.014209, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.010243, "energy": 50.76166, "activity_lines": [ 11.785233, 11.768236, 11.726033, 11.721848 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.6735, "volume": 27247, "typical_volume": 53619.0, "trend": 11.7185, "fair_value": 11.167808, "relative_strength": -9.149939, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.772133, "energy": 12.580309, "activity_lines": [ 11.742367, 11.756891, 11.723893, 11.718962 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.699, "volume": 3431, "typical_volume": 53775.55, "trend": 11.719617, "fair_value": 11.171421, "relative_strength": -8.787133, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.154033, "energy": 14.650198, "activity_lines": [ 11.7184, 11.748191, 11.724586, 11.717704 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.76, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 51785.65, "trend": 11.721067, "fair_value": 11.175398, "relative_strength": -9.259316, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.941893, "energy": 13.16937, "activity_lines": [ 11.7244, 11.749564, 11.730714, 11.72031 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }