{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56f72b7e-548c-43ef-87e6-0bc94b9bb337", "symbol": "MARS", "name": "Marston's PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.687, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -9.274, "architecture_energy": 9.225, "architecture_maturity": 17.559, "architecture_confidence": 63.119, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.56, "rotation_up": 34.28, "upward_expansion": 36.43, "deceleration": 37.14, "rotation_down": 23.94, "downward_expansion": 42.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.5216, 0.518773, 0.508683, 0.517739 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.522, "trend_reference": 0.539683, "distance_from_trend": -0.032766, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.411542, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.268401, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.907039, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.138614, "excess_performance": -0.189849, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032766, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031958, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.268401, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035991, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.05907, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052043, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.138614, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.319163, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3667180, "relative_activity": 0.603668, "balance": 1.319163, "dry_up": 1.084481, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084577, "annualized_volatility": 0.348808, "from_high_reference": -0.245665, "from_low_reference": 0.454687 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.539683, "fair_value_reference": 0.411542, "structural_low": 0.4405, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.015152, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": 0.005212, "regime_survival": 0.473684, "best_return": 0.255217, "worst_return": -0.212508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.008164, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015742, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.511059, "worst_return": -0.228075, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.049098, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020342, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.357143, "worst_return": -0.532398, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.083617, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018973, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.432937, "worst_return": -0.519643, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040698, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.143678, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.256906, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.109202, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.205706, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045238, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.131548, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.096433, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", 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7.918196, "energy": 22.541709, "activity_lines": [ 0.534467, 0.512109, 0.508538, 0.524441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.507, "volume": 12762922, "typical_volume": 6408387.25, "trend": 0.547783, "fair_value": 0.40892, "relative_strength": -7.067715, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.648656, "energy": 19.578841, "activity_lines": [ 0.529533, 0.514118, 0.50775, 0.521635 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.51, "volume": 5162670, "typical_volume": 6322159.15, "trend": 0.544617, "fair_value": 0.410202, "relative_strength": -7.681466, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.967662, "energy": 14.209484, "activity_lines": [ 0.523867, 0.5157, 0.507576, 0.519198 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.522, "volume": 3667180, "typical_volume": 6074830.3, "trend": 0.539683, "fair_value": 0.411542, "relative_strength": -5.907039, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.273992, "energy": 9.224651, "activity_lines": [ 0.5216, 0.518773, 0.508683, 0.517739 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }