{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56fad66b-347d-4a9b-9d58-3330444f941e", "symbol": "234310", "name": "KB KBSTAR V&S Select Value Securities ETF Investment Trust - Equity", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 61.77, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.041, "architecture_energy": 35.12, "architecture_maturity": 38.581, "architecture_confidence": 70.936, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.05, "rotation_up": 14.36, "upward_expansion": 17.08, "deceleration": 60.82, "rotation_down": 69.11, "downward_expansion": 46.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 27514.666667, 28605.454545, 29678.01915, 29239.268586 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 27005.0, "trend_reference": 28270.444466, "distance_from_trend": -0.044762, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18655.784982, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.44754, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.036709, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.122457, "excess_performance": -0.107371, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044762, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.131763, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.44754, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.414171, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.060367, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064163, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.122457, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.05546, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 73, "relative_activity": 0.018959, "balance": 0.05546, "dry_up": 1.708804, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088032, "annualized_volatility": 0.336547, "from_high_reference": -0.19183, "from_low_reference": 0.711827 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28270.444466, "fair_value_reference": 18655.784982, "structural_low": 23110.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.039781, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.007601, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.15663, "worst_return": -0.077068, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.1767, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.327464, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.1767, "worst_return": 0.1767, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.26883, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.116712, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0211, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.077068, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-06-21", "close": 14815.395508, 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24.406763, "activity_lines": [ 28521.666667, 29789.181818, 30117.863588, 29337.775084 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27420.0, "volume": 175, "typical_volume": 4161.65, "trend": 28084.513607, "fair_value": 18580.566829, "relative_strength": -9.736593, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.82113, "energy": 31.660452, "activity_lines": [ 28008.333333, 29189.818182, 29922.353925, 29308.914625 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27005.0, "volume": 73, "typical_volume": 3850.5, "trend": 28270.444466, "fair_value": 18655.784982, "relative_strength": -6.036709, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.041407, "energy": 35.120378, "activity_lines": [ 27514.666667, 28605.454545, 29678.01915, 29239.268586 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }