{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56fc6b26-7153-4f32-8366-fa9e41f63473", "symbol": "002313", "name": "Sunsea AIoT Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.496, "architecture_energy": 38.203, "architecture_maturity": 39.008, "architecture_confidence": 85.535, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.91, "rotation_up": 22.83, "upward_expansion": 4.94, "deceleration": 57.44, "rotation_down": 44.3, "downward_expansion": 73.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.899333, 7.903636, 8.360857, 8.614903 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.2, "trend_reference": 9.033667, "distance_from_trend": -0.092284, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.04391, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.093313, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.374162, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.17422, "excess_performance": -0.181619, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.092284, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087846, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.093313, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.217458, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.213742, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013585, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.17422, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.272731, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42929362, "relative_activity": 0.8567, "balance": 0.272731, "dry_up": 1.079705, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096435, "annualized_volatility": 0.394393, "from_high_reference": -0.45803, "from_low_reference": 0.202346 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.033667, "fair_value_reference": 9.04391, "structural_low": 6.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.006024, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -0.006981, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.214123, "worst_return": -0.180905, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.029924, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013154, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.647863, "worst_return": -0.23444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.057951, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.136299, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.451807, "worst_return": -0.29981, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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7.932, 8.332909, 8.720429, 8.976237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.78, "volume": 72283791, "typical_volume": 48114452.8, "trend": 9.266, "fair_value": 9.052885, "relative_strength": -24.057373, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.524822, "energy": 55.981382, "activity_lines": [ 7.878667, 8.152364, 8.612524, 8.874452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.38, "volume": 60893562, "typical_volume": 48562656.5, "trend": 9.177, "fair_value": 9.039808, "relative_strength": -27.666262, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.320858, "energy": 49.68168, "activity_lines": [ 7.716667, 7.942727, 8.476571, 8.752774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.94, "volume": 40310016, "typical_volume": 49232983.45, "trend": 9.1, "fair_value": 9.040449, "relative_strength": -20.475203, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.013574, "energy": 43.869153, "activity_lines": [ 7.782667, 7.881636, 8.403381, 8.672968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.2, "volume": 42929362, "typical_volume": 50110157.2, "trend": 9.033667, "fair_value": 9.04391, "relative_strength": -21.374162, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.495737, "energy": 38.20316, "activity_lines": [ 7.899333, 7.903636, 8.360857, 8.614903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }