{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56fde1ee-48e1-45eb-b668-ce31683fa075", "symbol": "SSE", "name": "SSE plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 82.12, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.265, "architecture_energy": 22.324, "architecture_maturity": 13.828, "architecture_confidence": 75.216, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.9, "rotation_up": 24.23, "upward_expansion": 11.4, "deceleration": 33.44, "rotation_down": 36.58, "downward_expansion": 64.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 2390.90768, 2392.953893, 2411.45842, 2453.214134 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2390.0, "trend_reference": 2485.451013, "distance_from_trend": -0.038404, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1900.422278, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.257615, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.956653, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.047809, "excess_performance": -0.099044, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.038404, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031697, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.257615, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095843, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.019567, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141493, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.047809, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.698002, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12718455, "relative_activity": 0.875068, "balance": 0.698002, "dry_up": 1.050941, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059287, "annualized_volatility": 0.355676, "from_high_reference": -0.136405, "from_low_reference": 0.4967 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2485.451013, "fair_value_reference": 1900.422278, "structural_low": 2149.0566, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.026216, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.007552, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.0637, "worst_return": -0.157593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.093253, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.025632, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.148125, "worst_return": -0.146689, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.040003, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.002585, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.132977, "worst_return": -0.048257, 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2422.0, "volume": 12165948, "typical_volume": 15007601.25, "trend": 2479.051013, "fair_value": 1891.021374, "relative_strength": 1.16945, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.289707, "energy": 18.239453, "activity_lines": [ 2420.92486, 2400.191362, 2431.768233, 2467.790608 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2346.0, "volume": 15064806, "typical_volume": 15033751.65, "trend": 2482.884347, "fair_value": 1895.609624, "relative_strength": -3.29629, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.5045, "energy": 21.58778, "activity_lines": [ 2397.591673, 2391.836264, 2418.603802, 2459.206672 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2390.0, "volume": 12718455, "typical_volume": 14534248.65, "trend": 2485.451013, "fair_value": 1900.422278, "relative_strength": -1.956653, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.265008, "energy": 22.324433, "activity_lines": [ 2390.90768, 2392.953893, 2411.45842, 2453.214134 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }