{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "570246e2-dcb9-42a8-8d25-0925c86f0a0e",
    "symbol": "TRET",
    "name": "VanEck Global Real Estate UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 63.582,
    "architecture_energy": 59.291,
    "architecture_maturity": 31.204,
    "architecture_confidence": 62.727,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 10.3,
        "rotation_up": 68.39,
        "upward_expansion": 83.19,
        "deceleration": 53.94,
        "rotation_down": 13.55,
        "downward_expansion": 9.86
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        42.342333,
        42.029636,
        41.234903,
        40.777064
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 41.830002,
    "trend_reference": 40.219446,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.040044,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 36.431458,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.148184,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -8.102619,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.073069,
    "excess_performance": -0.097823,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.040044,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.033329,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.148184,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.023513,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.081026,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.013226,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.073069,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.062341,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 7720,
      "relative_activity": 1.608233,
      "balance": 1.062341,
      "dry_up": 2.036956,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 5
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.025263,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.155234,
      "from_high_reference": -0.044977,
      "from_low_reference": 0.165287
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 40.219446,
      "fair_value_reference": 36.431458,
      "structural_low": 37.444411,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 31,
        "median_return": -0.001106,
        "positive_rate": 0.483871,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.483871,
        "median_excess_return": -0.019167,
        "regime_survival": 0.741935,
        "best_return": 0.054738,
        "worst_return": -0.075699,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.00377,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.006892,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.11089,
        "worst_return": -0.067424,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.006525,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.003517,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.107686,
        "worst_return": -0.094871,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.0026,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.044797,
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        "best_return": 0.080697,
        "worst_return": -0.001706,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "start": "2023-12-29",
        "end": "2024-02-02",
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-03-15",
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        "return": 0.007215,
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-02-14",
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        "active": false
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "return": 0.012444,
        "active": false
      },
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      {
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        "typical_volume": 4844.25,
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 4163.15,
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        "fair_value": 36.094121,
        "relative_strength": -7.179608,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 3949.15,
        "trend": 39.558751,
        "fair_value": 36.157285,
        "relative_strength": -7.697941,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 63.560611,
        "energy": 73.15184,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 4343,
        "typical_volume": 3886.4,
        "trend": 39.737224,
        "fair_value": 36.226447,
        "relative_strength": -2.667527,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 87.180372,
        "energy": 88.5236,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.999999,
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          40.621128,
          40.292439
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 43.294998,
        "volume": 19753,
        "typical_volume": 4698.05,
        "trend": 39.938937,
        "fair_value": 36.297902,
        "relative_strength": -1.767631,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 83.714997,
        "energy": 90.887992,
        "activity_lines": [
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          40.919775,
          40.521973
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 42.165001,
        "volume": 7296,
        "typical_volume": 4800.55,
        "trend": 40.102155,
        "fair_value": 36.365463,
        "relative_strength": -4.827569,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.897112,
        "energy": 73.839682,
        "activity_lines": [
          42.518999,
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          41.098065,
          40.66559
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 41.830002,
        "volume": 7720,
        "typical_volume": 4800.3,
        "trend": 40.219446,
        "fair_value": 36.431458,
        "relative_strength": -8.102619,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.581535,
        "energy": 59.29076,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}