{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5705a4ed-2794-42ba-8768-524701e7722c", "symbol": "000856", "name": "TangshanJidong Equipment and Engineering Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.299, "architecture_energy": 53.621, "architecture_maturity": 68.158, "architecture_confidence": 94.191, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.92, "rotation_up": 27.49, "upward_expansion": 9.33, "deceleration": 60.0, "rotation_down": 51.15, "downward_expansion": 82.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.465333, 7.4916, 8.256152, 8.92879 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.84, "trend_reference": 9.665351, "distance_from_trend": -0.188855, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.13526, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.141787, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.33964, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.253333, "excess_performance": -0.260733, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.188855, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094757, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.141787, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.276177, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.263396, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033958, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.253333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.490433, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21735817, "relative_activity": 0.508236, "balance": 0.490433, "dry_up": 0.593096, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109156, "annualized_volatility": 0.494886, "from_high_reference": -0.403802, "from_low_reference": 0.225 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.665351, "fair_value_reference": 9.13526, "structural_low": 6.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.023392, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": 0.019664, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.332898, "worst_return": -0.219721, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.112257, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.11411, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.305085, "worst_return": -0.197279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.00896, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.068666, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.952542, "worst_return": -0.279727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.00183, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062789, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069109, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.131858, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012974, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", 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"close": 7.39, "volume": 24885089, "typical_volume": 48005148.5, "trend": 10.022684, "fair_value": 9.165388, "relative_strength": -37.184532, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.522313, "energy": 88.084704, "activity_lines": [ 7.53, 8.095933, 9.067829, 9.575053 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.21, "volume": 25144679, "typical_volume": 47789217.25, "trend": 9.936018, "fair_value": 9.155965, "relative_strength": -31.896699, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.327588, "energy": 87.084839, "activity_lines": [ 7.384667, 7.829841, 8.820065, 9.393589 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.91, "volume": 32477928, "typical_volume": 47210924.05, "trend": 9.832351, "fair_value": 9.145452, "relative_strength": -34.248382, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.508449, "energy": 77.021389, "activity_lines": [ 7.206, 7.567377, 8.563395, 9.198362 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.56, "volume": 22101702, "typical_volume": 46633844.1, "trend": 9.746018, "fair_value": 9.139875, "relative_strength": -26.095219, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.532271, "energy": 60.519258, "activity_lines": [ 7.302, 7.475505, 8.38844, 9.051759 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.84, "volume": 21735817, "typical_volume": 42767145.1, "trend": 9.665351, "fair_value": 9.13526, "relative_strength": -26.33964, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.298931, "energy": 53.620585, "activity_lines": [ 7.465333, 7.4916, 8.256152, 8.92879 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }