{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5706aaa7-5a63-4eeb-ab97-91b5e83b6a34", "symbol": "MFE2", "name": "MFE-Mediaforeurope N.V.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -6.418, "architecture_energy": 14.9, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 47.248, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.48, "rotation_up": 37.2, "upward_expansion": 23.97, "deceleration": 43.99, "rotation_down": 19.62, "downward_expansion": 51.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.571726, 3.498226, 3.541587, 3.570168 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.748, "trend_reference": 3.654209, "distance_from_trend": 0.025666, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.620924, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.035095, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.278022, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.050659, "excess_performance": -0.224905, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025666, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0455, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.035095, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001699, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.22278, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001227, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.050659, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.516149, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11098, "relative_activity": 1.086059, "balance": 0.516149, "dry_up": 0.562602, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050142, "annualized_volatility": 0.352331, "from_high_reference": -0.292162, "from_low_reference": 0.228047 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.654209, "fair_value_reference": 3.620924, "structural_low": 3.052, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.040078, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.037137, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.252283, "worst_return": -0.484277, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.058653, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.089148, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.171377, "worst_return": -0.557407, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.04712, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.158104, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.194166, "worst_return": -0.701111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -25.608426, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.944172, "energy": 67.829562, "activity_lines": [ 3.388259, 3.45766, 3.530096, 3.590862 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.418, "volume": 10472, "typical_volume": 15669.85, "trend": 3.680276, "fair_value": 3.613418, "relative_strength": -28.133262, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.599116, "energy": 42.343375, "activity_lines": [ 3.402774, 3.440019, 3.518123, 3.572677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.556, "volume": 363, "typical_volume": 11597.0, "trend": 3.662609, "fair_value": 3.616747, "relative_strength": -24.576913, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.649214, "energy": 23.935878, "activity_lines": [ 3.466183, 3.451359, 3.521036, 3.564659 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.748, "volume": 11098, "typical_volume": 10218.6, "trend": 3.654209, "fair_value": 3.620924, "relative_strength": -22.278022, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.417636, "energy": 14.90006, "activity_lines": [ 3.571726, 3.498226, 3.541587, 3.570168 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }