{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5708e813-4ad7-433a-ae7f-c78b3e723ed4", "symbol": "ALTG", "name": "Alta Equipment Group Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.306, "architecture_energy": 20.168, "architecture_maturity": 34.104, "architecture_confidence": 55.002, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.57, "rotation_up": 36.03, "upward_expansion": 67.16, "deceleration": 66.44, "rotation_down": 27.69, "downward_expansion": 7.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.834667, 6.802909, 6.744143, 6.658409 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.5, "trend_reference": 6.608333, "distance_from_trend": 0.134931, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.640081, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.018335, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.786784, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.020408, "excess_performance": -0.105217, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.134931, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10145, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.018335, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106528, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.037868, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038111, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.020408, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.203339, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1134970, "relative_activity": 0.966093, "balance": 1.203339, "dry_up": 0.670757, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.15441, "annualized_volatility": 0.684029, "from_high_reference": -0.155405, "from_low_reference": 0.805054 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.608333, "fair_value_reference": 7.640081, "structural_low": 4.97, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.013852, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.03201, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.301115, "worst_return": -0.273365, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.010178, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.049651, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.453672, "worst_return": -0.274919, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.281953, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.275123, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.249952, "worst_return": -0.388486, 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6.626667, 6.678727, 6.649048, 6.592151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.44, "volume": 641088, "typical_volume": 1202404.55, "trend": 6.499333, "fair_value": 7.730598, "relative_strength": -7.861142, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.077854, "energy": 8.333042, "activity_lines": [ 6.49, 6.654909, 6.642714, 6.592022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.58, "volume": 703984, "typical_volume": 1162019.2, "trend": 6.551667, "fair_value": 7.675549, "relative_strength": -6.245422, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.834969, "energy": 6.086133, "activity_lines": [ 6.482, 6.655636, 6.650714, 6.597226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.5, "volume": 1134970, "typical_volume": 1174804.0, "trend": 6.608333, "fair_value": 7.640081, "relative_strength": 3.786784, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.306365, "energy": 20.167505, "activity_lines": [ 6.834667, 6.802909, 6.744143, 6.658409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }