{ "ticker": { "uuid": "570b27c5-b5b8-4ff8-a414-52fb1f9b6b58", "symbol": "ODD", "name": "ODDITY Tech Ltd. Class A Ordinary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.647, "architecture_energy": 16.688, "architecture_maturity": 46.365, "architecture_confidence": 68.421, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.02, "rotation_up": 24.5, "upward_expansion": 20.93, "deceleration": 60.69, "rotation_down": 36.6, "downward_expansion": 54.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.871333, 15.085364, 14.47069, 15.058763 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 14.12, "trend_reference": 17.738167, "distance_from_trend": -0.203976, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 39.86484, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.645803, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -61.5574, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.530429, "excess_performance": -0.717883, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.203976, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.32986, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.645803, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005902, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.615574, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119651, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.530429, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.730651, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3653946, "relative_activity": 0.539903, "balance": 0.730651, "dry_up": 0.532097, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.187325, "annualized_volatility": 1.612238, "from_high_reference": -0.780165, "from_low_reference": 0.52647 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.738167, "fair_value_reference": 39.86484, "structural_low": 9.2501, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.235081, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.185458, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.501788, "worst_return": -0.031625, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.655586, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.558343, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.655586, "worst_return": 0.655586, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.442982, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.193312, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.442982, "worst_return": 0.442982, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.691367, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.907943, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.691367, "worst_return": -0.691367, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036335, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021468, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.100537, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.257917, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.110128, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.561714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.135069, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 45.26, "volume": 4058467, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 41.62, "volume": 3406645, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.43654, "energy": 24.460898, "activity_lines": [ 16.429, 14.877636, 14.369905, 15.979742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.34, "volume": 3105882, "typical_volume": 7463758.65, "trend": 19.2905, "fair_value": 40.343814, "relative_strength": -58.850552, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.175197, "energy": 21.84049, "activity_lines": [ 16.26, 15.135, 14.483595, 15.66771 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.18, "volume": 3491492, "typical_volume": 6954494.95, "trend": 18.448167, "fair_value": 40.110096, "relative_strength": -60.65186, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.386651, "energy": 13.192268, "activity_lines": [ 15.553, 15.132545, 14.481333, 15.338 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.12, "volume": 3653946, "typical_volume": 6767777.6, "trend": 17.738167, "fair_value": 39.86484, "relative_strength": -61.5574, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.646783, "energy": 16.687682, "activity_lines": [ 14.871333, 15.085364, 14.47069, 15.058763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }