{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5713f1de-0d2e-4e0b-88d1-83f33e319159", "symbol": "001979", "name": "China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.151, "architecture_energy": 50.455, "architecture_maturity": 85.83, "architecture_confidence": 77.75, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.56, "rotation_up": 27.11, "upward_expansion": 13.28, "deceleration": 60.46, "rotation_down": 47.13, "downward_expansion": 75.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.864921, 6.873299, 7.465004, 7.907613 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.02, "trend_reference": 8.501198, "distance_from_trend": -0.174234, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.399233, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.253131, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.790628, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.335856, "excess_performance": -0.343256, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.174234, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07522, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.253131, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.215431, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.237906, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071691, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.335856, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.407716, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 482958986, "relative_activity": 1.793885, "balance": 1.407716, "dry_up": 1.563368, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092227, "annualized_volatility": 0.374419, "from_high_reference": -0.367568, "from_low_reference": 0.136953 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.501198, "fair_value_reference": 9.399233, "structural_low": 6.174398, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.003343, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005089, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.240883, "worst_return": -0.218787, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.073163, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.050016, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.295995, "worst_return": -0.301717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.026316, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.02151, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.226621, "worst_return": -0.181165, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"trend": 8.616531, "fair_value": 9.458096, "relative_strength": -25.15438, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.797938, "energy": 80.829973, "activity_lines": [ 6.643576, 7.003515, 7.662822, 8.114177 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.95, "volume": 391768488, "typical_volume": 258069448.55, "trend": 8.555198, "fair_value": 9.430105, "relative_strength": -21.183084, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.724572, "energy": 57.781889, "activity_lines": [ 6.757846, 6.918134, 7.55427, 8.006658 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.02, "volume": 482958986, "typical_volume": 269225222.25, "trend": 8.501198, "fair_value": 9.399233, "relative_strength": -23.790628, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.150828, "energy": 50.454985, "activity_lines": [ 6.864921, 6.873299, 7.465004, 7.907613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }