{ "ticker": { "uuid": "571e9c6d-ec31-4082-9bdb-a80fcf92f321", "symbol": "HEADSUP", "name": "Heads UP Ventures Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.78, "architecture_energy": 31.018, "architecture_maturity": 72.706, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.65, "rotation_up": 19.15, "upward_expansion": 3.0, "deceleration": 48.83, "rotation_down": 50.23, "downward_expansion": 76.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.844667, 6.902, 7.045381, 7.152172 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.99, "trend_reference": 7.409, "distance_from_trend": -0.056553, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.240769, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.378156, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.475797, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.190972, "excess_performance": -0.147263, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.056553, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100595, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.378156, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045166, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.174758, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042321, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.190972, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.465596, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 97112, "relative_activity": 0.904726, "balance": 0.465596, "dry_up": 1.055562, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082866, "annualized_volatility": 0.369988, "from_high_reference": -0.460232, "from_low_reference": 0.228471 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.409, "fair_value_reference": 11.240769, "structural_low": 5.69, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.021224, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.041709, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.297748, "worst_return": -0.21412, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.055197, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.378049, "worst_return": -0.309398, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.079842, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.146338, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.178862, "worst_return": -0.201163, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.067458, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.197911, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.022222, "worst_return": -0.294589, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026316, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.067194, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.147493, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.180491, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.100464, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002467, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022184, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.120141, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.187081, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038076, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008499, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024281, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.115053, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.26188, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.15, "volume": 164835, "typical_volume": 408873.15, "trend": 12.945, "fair_value": 13.81859, "relative_strength": -15.500347, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", 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"typical_volume": 120356.15, "trend": 7.699667, "fair_value": 11.374295, "relative_strength": -19.705069, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.014454, "energy": 37.814481, "activity_lines": [ 6.972667, 7.071818, 7.160286, 7.342108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.78, "volume": 37268, "typical_volume": 119302.8, "trend": 7.61, "fair_value": 11.341154, "relative_strength": -20.640361, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.557134, "energy": 48.659162, "activity_lines": [ 6.890667, 6.998182, 7.118762, 7.282774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.11, "volume": 75926, "typical_volume": 121352.9, "trend": 7.541667, "fair_value": 11.310128, "relative_strength": -14.453275, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.046307, "energy": 38.348336, "activity_lines": [ 6.94, 7.003273, 7.115095, 7.250516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.49, "volume": 242904, "typical_volume": 119881.6, "trend": 7.462667, "fair_value": 11.273526, "relative_strength": -23.333297, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.844882, "energy": 46.42053, "activity_lines": [ 6.790667, 6.901818, 7.055714, 7.182667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.99, "volume": 97112, "typical_volume": 107338.6, "trend": 7.409, "fair_value": 11.240769, "relative_strength": -17.475797, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.779524, "energy": 31.01816, "activity_lines": [ 6.844667, 6.902, 7.045381, 7.152172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }