{ "ticker": { "uuid": "571f0866-b706-49a9-87e6-a4238a2cd736", "symbol": "1678", "name": "NEXT FUNDS Nifty 50 Linked Exchange Traded Fund", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.369, "architecture_energy": 14.305, "architecture_maturity": 20.241, "architecture_confidence": 64.84, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.67, "rotation_up": 24.29, "upward_expansion": 23.53, "deceleration": 56.39, "rotation_down": 34.65, "downward_expansion": 52.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 319.039996, 319.705454, 317.415714, 318.465161 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 315.299988, "trend_reference": 323.020001, "distance_from_trend": -0.023899, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 331.946417, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.050148, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.283437, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.097596, "excess_performance": -0.306854, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023899, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037906, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.050148, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008699, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.222834, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071936, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.097596, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.774336, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2590670, "relative_activity": 1.044926, "balance": 0.774336, "dry_up": 1.116734, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025958, "annualized_volatility": 0.159311, "from_high_reference": -0.142508, "from_low_reference": 0.061616 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 323.020001, "fair_value_reference": 331.946417, "structural_low": 297.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.01721, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.005815, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.079098, "worst_return": -0.05185, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.025862, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.000988, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.130857, "worst_return": -0.058598, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.076327, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.0032, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.125552, "worst_return": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 317.0, "volume": 3568640, "typical_volume": 2665955.5, "trend": 325.373335, "fair_value": 331.504374, "relative_strength": -22.102777, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.6956, "energy": 14.888223, "activity_lines": [ 320.526666, 318.961819, 316.685238, 319.163227 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 323.600006, "volume": 2798080, "typical_volume": 2529651.0, "trend": 324.346668, "fair_value": 331.761702, "relative_strength": -19.378621, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.807594, "energy": 10.404519, "activity_lines": [ 321.213334, 320.216365, 317.460953, 319.048818 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 315.299988, "volume": 2590670, "typical_volume": 2479286.0, "trend": 323.020001, "fair_value": 331.946417, "relative_strength": -22.283437, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.368877, "energy": 14.305266, "activity_lines": [ 319.039996, 319.705454, 317.415714, 318.465161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }