{ "ticker": { "uuid": "572ad0ab-5576-4d6e-b044-159f15ce9c60", "symbol": "VCR", "name": "Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF Shares", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 60.82, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 5.718, "architecture_energy": 10.4, "architecture_maturity": 25.948, "architecture_confidence": 56.589, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.41, "rotation_up": 28.19, "upward_expansion": 27.95, "deceleration": 61.17, "rotation_down": 43.08, "downward_expansion": 32.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 6789.8, 6815.615066, 6790.324607, 6767.097051 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6825.0, "trend_reference": 6793.516715, "distance_from_trend": 0.004634, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6360.511675, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.073027, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.603, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.030923, "excess_performance": 0.023744, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004634, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025407, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.073027, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012325, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.04603, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091187, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.030923, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 35.6, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 76, "relative_activity": 0.125103, "balance": 35.6, "dry_up": 0.100823, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018296, "annualized_volatility": 0.171047, "from_high_reference": -0.073242, "from_low_reference": 0.077603 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6793.516715, "fair_value_reference": 6360.511675, "structural_low": 6333.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.004234, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.012253, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.060638, "worst_return": -0.038612, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.06055, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.033341, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.070465, "worst_return": -0.007923, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.077291, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.023174, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.102851, "worst_return": 0.008129, "sufficient": false }, { 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025255, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017911, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018945, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.000102, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116056, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.081724, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031964, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043453, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4840.953613, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 124.15, "trend": 4625.922673, "fair_value": 5471.839318, "relative_strength": 0.656448, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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"mixed", "direction": 37.121355, "energy": 52.035121, "activity_lines": [ 6874.276139, 6833.011248, 6756.784494, 6777.542196 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6950.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1364.5, "trend": 6848.793848, "fair_value": 6323.538214, "relative_strength": -3.462138, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.797665, "energy": 64.768725, "activity_lines": [ 6911.079069, 6859.741806, 6779.604336, 6783.183163 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6760.0, "volume": 23, "typical_volume": 596.75, "trend": 6828.689355, "fair_value": 6336.07112, "relative_strength": -5.44495, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.819014, "energy": 42.382689, "activity_lines": [ 6870.586654, 6847.649938, 6784.770757, 6777.454528 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6648.0, "volume": 146, "typical_volume": 604.05, "trend": 6804.85153, "fair_value": 6347.79023, "relative_strength": -7.386587, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.69951, "energy": 10.613437, "activity_lines": [ 6796.333333, 6815.851136, 6778.991799, 6765.79715 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6825.0, "volume": 76, "typical_volume": 607.5, "trend": 6793.516715, "fair_value": 6360.511675, "relative_strength": -4.603, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.718355, "energy": 10.39968, "activity_lines": [ 6789.8, 6815.615066, 6790.324607, 6767.097051 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }