{ "ticker": { "uuid": "573219fe-d0f3-4388-9604-c11b2a1ef8ae", "symbol": "BOLD", "name": "Boundless Bio, Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "model_version": "ta-0.1.0", "as_of_week": "2026-07-31", "benchmark": "SPY", "history_weeks": 123, "chart_window_weeks": 156, "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "stage_color": "blue", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "stage_age_weeks": 16, "hard_stage_exit": false, "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "transition_score": 83.166, "is_transition_watch": true, "confidence": 73.851, "composite_score": 83.69, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_color": "green", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.968, "architecture_energy": 85.768, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.55, "architecture_age_weeks": 5, "is_reacceleration_watch": false, "architecture": { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.968, "energy": 85.768, "maturity": 30.0, "confidence": 88.55, "confirmation": 99.986, "age_weeks": 5, "candidate": null, "candidate_weeks": 0, "hard_reversal": false, "reacceleration_watch": false, "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Activity Lines are positively ordered above the 30-week Trend Line, with rising slopes and price acceptance. Fan expansion measures the energy of the move; contraction inside this regime warns that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.37, "rotation_up": 78.72, "upward_expansion": 96.77, "deceleration": 42.3, "rotation_down": 9.95, "downward_expansion": 21.1 }, "activity_lines": { "5": 2.502667, "10": 2.306909, "20": 1.964619, "30": 1.760495 }, "activity_slopes": { "5": 1.594952, "10": 1.878699, "20": 1.379639, "30": 1.045987 }, "bullish_order": 1.0, "bearish_order": 0.0, "fan_width_atr": 2.831886, "fan_width_change_4": 0.687438, "fan_width_percentile": 0.978723, "fast_slow_gap_atr": 2.068977, "fast_slow_gap_change_4": 0.524013, "price_acceptance": 0.833333, "current_fan_distance_atr": 0.0, "accepted_above": 0.833333, "accepted_below": 0.0, "crossing_density": 0.125 }, "interpretation": { "headline": "Price is repairing upward toward current Fair Value.", "body": "The market remains below the long-term Fair Value anchor, so the recovery stays in Stage 1. A narrowing gap, improving relative strength, range compression and eventual resistance absorption determine whether it can graduate to Stage 2.", "phase": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "transition_context": "The evidence score for the next canonical transition is 83/100." }, "latest_close": 2.5, "sma_30": 1.536, "distance_from_sma_30": 0.627604, "sma_30_slope": 0.229784, "fair_value": 2.766829, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.096439, "fair_value_gap_change_13": 0.35569, "is_fair_value_repair": true, "mansfield_rs": 66.056344, "mansfield_rs_change_13": 49.80053, "range_position_52": 0.841426, "returns": { "13": 0.592357, "26": 1.155172, "52": 1.155172 }, "relative_returns": { "26": 1.069852, "52": 0.940338 }, "stage_scores": { "1": 42.6, "2": 44.0, "3": 27.4, "4": 0.0 }, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs 30-week average", "positive": true, "value": 0.627604, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "30-week slope", "positive": true, "value": 0.229784, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.096439, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "13-week Fair Value gap", "positive": true, "value": 0.35569, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Mansfield RS vs SPY", "positive": true, "value": 0.660563, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "13-week RS change", "positive": true, "value": 0.498005, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "26-week price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.155172, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "13-week volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 14.510176, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 535579, "ratio_20": 0.121819, "up_down_ratio_13": 14.510176, "dry_up_ratio": 0.213333, "accumulation_weeks": 1, "distribution_weeks": 0 }, "base": { "high_26": 2.79, "low_26": 0.9612, "depth": 0.655484, "compression": 0.770997, "breakout_distance": -0.103943 }, "risk": { "atr_percent": 0.104831, "annualized_volatility": 0.963053, "drawdown_from_52_high": -0.103943, 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"architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.968233, "architecture_energy": 85.767585, "activity_5": 2.502667, "activity_10": 2.306909, "activity_20": 1.964619, "activity_30": 1.760495 } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed weekly OHLCV", "trend": "30-week simple moving average; slope compares the current value with ten completed weeks earlier", "fair_value": "current horizontal Fair Value is the arithmetic mean of up to 156 completed weekly closes; Stage 1 repair measures whether price is below and rising toward that anchor", "relative_strength": "Mansfield-style relative performance line: ticker/SPY divided by its trailing 52-week mean, minus one", "classification": "Trend Architecture uses the Activity Line position as a direction gate, then classifies ordering, four-week slopes, ATR-normalized fan width, fast/slow rotation and six-week price acceptance. Ordinary regime changes require two completed observations; a fully aligned reversal beyond the fan can change immediately.", "architecture_boundary": "The green/red/orange Trend gate is derived from the same Activity Lines and is therefore not counted as an independent vote. Relative strength and volume alter confirmation, while point-in-time Fair Value supplies context rather than determining the regime.", "admissibility": "Stage 2 cannot persist when price is more than 5% below the 30-week average or 8% below current Fair Value, the ten-week average slope is below -2%, Mansfield RS is below -8, or the 26-week return is below -15%. Stage 4 requires price no more than 5% above the average, RS no higher than +8, and at least one deterioration test: slope at or below +1.5%, 13-week return at or below -10%, or 26-week return at or below -12%. These are exit boundaries, not entry signals.", "confidence": "separation between the leading and runner-up stage evidence scores; not forecast probability" }, "historical_outcomes": [ { "weeks": 4, "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.013915, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002809, "stage_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.70922, "worst_return": -0.094891, "sufficient": true }, { "weeks": 13, "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.274194, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.24463, "stage_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.56962, "worst_return": -0.094891, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 26, "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.153285, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.078324, "stage_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.153285, "worst_return": 0.153285, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 52, "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "stage_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "stage_ledger": [ { "stage": 4, "name": "Declining", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "weeks": 2, "return": 0.03252 }, { "stage": 1, "name": "Basing", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "weeks": 4, "return": -0.10219 }, { "stage": 4, "name": "Declining", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "weeks": 6, "return": -0.016129 }, { "stage": 1, "name": "Basing", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-04-03", "weeks": 15, "return": -0.1 }, { "stage": 4, "name": "Declining", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-10", "weeks": 1, "return": 0.0 }, { "stage": 1, "name": "Basing", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "weeks": 16, "return": 0.582278, "active": true } ], "architecture_outcomes": [ { "weeks": 4, "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.006944, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.008408, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.013889, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 13, "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 26, "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 52, "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "architecture_ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "weeks": 3, "return": 0.113821, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "weeks": 5, "return": -0.226027, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-04-03", "weeks": 19, "return": -0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-10", "weeks": 1, "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "weeks": 3, "return": -0.006329, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-29", "weeks": 4, "return": 0.006944, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-26", "weeks": 4, "return": 0.802817, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "weeks": 5, "return": 0.0, "active": true } ] } }