{ "ticker": { "uuid": "57394b96-b14d-4b50-9099-1ebdd6198d25", "symbol": "BTU", "name": "Peabody Energy Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.705, "architecture_energy": 47.066, "architecture_maturity": 56.654, "architecture_confidence": 88.968, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.51, "rotation_up": 24.43, "upward_expansion": 6.85, "deceleration": 57.72, "rotation_down": 52.37, "downward_expansion": 80.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.732, 23.136727, 24.290785, 26.187999 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 23.81, "trend_reference": 28.890962, "distance_from_trend": -0.175867, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.975115, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.036339, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.982727, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.351592, "excess_performance": -0.477217, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.175867, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059906, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.036339, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002977, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.239827, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073266, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.351592, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.34881, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10975352, "relative_activity": 0.69828, "balance": 1.34881, "dry_up": 0.780046, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115625, "annualized_volatility": 0.540816, "from_high_reference": -0.419415, "from_low_reference": 0.531651 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.890962, "fair_value_reference": 22.975115, "structural_low": 20.06, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.003708, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.007332, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.56093, "worst_return": -0.221059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.15378, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.021685, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.28, "worst_return": -0.331384, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.180219, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.10504, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.947907, "worst_return": -0.186023, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.565892, "energy": 78.214451, "activity_lines": [ 22.96, 24.179003, 25.585351, 27.515986 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.8, "volume": 10243732, "typical_volume": 16170833.8, "trend": 29.524361, "fair_value": 22.960757, "relative_strength": -23.591769, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.956521, "energy": 72.733134, "activity_lines": [ 22.798667, 23.829636, 25.118513, 27.066208 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.32, "volume": 18612307, "typical_volume": 16517699.65, "trend": 29.21788, "fair_value": 22.963284, "relative_strength": -29.417806, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.682296, "energy": 64.393994, "activity_lines": [ 22.277333, 23.227455, 24.554623, 26.536894 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.81, "volume": 10975352, "typical_volume": 15717692.4, "trend": 28.890962, "fair_value": 22.975115, "relative_strength": -23.982727, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.704959, "energy": 47.066122, "activity_lines": [ 22.732, 23.136727, 24.290785, 26.187999 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }