{ "ticker": { "uuid": "573962e3-8f06-4858-951b-ceb980b17d96", "symbol": "REI-UN", "name": "RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 70.332, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.972, "architecture_energy": 29.434, "architecture_maturity": 60.28, "architecture_confidence": 79.126, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.23, "rotation_up": 27.94, "upward_expansion": 58.01, "deceleration": 91.02, "rotation_down": 27.77, "downward_expansion": 21.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.226011, 22.439664, 22.206689, 21.620242 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 21.73, "trend_reference": 20.874066, "distance_from_trend": 0.041005, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.395224, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.249193, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.610567, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.119011, "excess_performance": -0.001411, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041005, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075141, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.249193, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035991, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.016106, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073741, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.119011, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.688776, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4266771, "relative_activity": 1.523725, "balance": 0.688776, "dry_up": 1.137287, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030798, "annualized_volatility": 0.166871, "from_high_reference": -0.061416, "from_low_reference": 0.304266 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.874066, "fair_value_reference": 17.395224, "structural_low": 18.448467, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.002264, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.009069, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.08687, "worst_return": -0.052084, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.000335, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.032104, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.219458, "worst_return": -0.1333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.0486, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.080092, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.194748, "worst_return": -0.164106, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001161, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059916, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031841, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00144, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.056499, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", 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{ "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 22.402851, "volume": 2800762, "typical_volume": 2952153.75, "trend": 20.341756, "fair_value": 17.247372, "relative_strength": 4.738396, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.059248, "energy": 60.73496, "activity_lines": [ 22.65149, 22.514275, 21.795717, 21.157919 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.040089, "volume": 2574896, "typical_volume": 2843219.65, "trend": 20.508152, "fair_value": 17.287566, "relative_strength": 7.715321, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.724736, "energy": 65.258227, "activity_lines": [ 22.753878, 22.650356, 21.987449, 21.332005 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.512377, "volume": 2094555, "typical_volume": 2769403.55, "trend": 20.658901, "fair_value": 17.32427, "relative_strength": 4.856004, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.76273, "energy": 53.620339, "activity_lines": [ 22.681842, 22.666528, 22.111847, 21.46131 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.18, "volume": 3802407, "typical_volume": 2773460.95, "trend": 20.787653, "fair_value": 17.361216, "relative_strength": 3.691342, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.820215, "energy": 40.652233, "activity_lines": [ 22.508455, 22.596725, 22.188477, 21.559446 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.73, "volume": 4266771, "typical_volume": 2800224.1, "trend": 20.874066, "fair_value": 17.395224, "relative_strength": -1.610567, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.971533, "energy": 29.433948, "activity_lines": [ 22.226011, 22.439664, 22.206689, 21.620242 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }