{ "ticker": { "uuid": "573d272a-9b01-4fcd-a982-45b622d66b60", "symbol": "RPI", "name": "Raspberry Pi Holdings plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 13.31, "architecture_energy": 19.709, "architecture_maturity": 78.261, "architecture_confidence": 73.955, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.22, "rotation_up": 20.09, "upward_expansion": 48.21, "deceleration": 85.03, "rotation_down": 36.64, "downward_expansion": 26.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 694.066667, 744.636364, 753.861905, 681.462366 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 697.0, "trend_reference": 573.300001, "distance_from_trend": 0.215768, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 474.52832, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.468827, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 34.317914, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.571956, "excess_performance": 1.52072, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.215768, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.387173, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.468827, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192169, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.343179, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.324878, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.571956, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.374216, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1325206, "relative_activity": 0.389397, "balance": 1.374216, "dry_up": 0.555025, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.1967, "annualized_volatility": 1.199023, "from_high_reference": -0.355823, "from_low_reference": 1.746257 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 573.300001, "fair_value_reference": 474.52832, "structural_low": 257.399994, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.256899, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.218114, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.363823, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.121746, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", 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812.890909, 748.425714, 654.373764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 708.0, "volume": 1527583, "typical_volume": 3710889.05, "trend": 547.860002, "fair_value": 470.880181, "relative_strength": 40.38641, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.708525, "energy": 22.201851, "activity_lines": [ 746.9, 793.4, 754.052381, 665.569893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 657.0, "volume": 2233909, "typical_volume": 3630789.3, "trend": 559.806668, "fair_value": 472.541965, "relative_strength": 27.885582, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.987005, "energy": 21.656126, "activity_lines": [ 709.633333, 764.545455, 752.920952, 672.611183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 697.0, "volume": 1325206, "typical_volume": 3403223.5, "trend": 573.300001, "fair_value": 474.52832, "relative_strength": 34.317914, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.31012, "energy": 19.709007, "activity_lines": [ 694.066667, 744.636364, 753.861905, 681.462366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }