{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5745736c-cb6b-4b08-9564-5763dc1a365b", "symbol": "IBIF", "name": "ISHARES TRUST IBONDS OCT 2029 TERM TIPS ETF USD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 54.934, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.167, "architecture_energy": 36.164, "architecture_maturity": 47.955, "architecture_confidence": 89.755, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.82, "rotation_up": 27.35, "upward_expansion": 17.83, "deceleration": 40.24, "rotation_down": 35.33, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.7031, 25.693828, 25.75122, 25.844316 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 25.7203, "trend_reference": 25.944939, "distance_from_trend": -0.008658, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.715217, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.040667, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.788576, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.014748, "excess_performance": -0.140373, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008658, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003264, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.040667, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006806, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117886, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002864, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014748, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.498252, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 111823, "relative_activity": 1.078858, "balance": 1.498252, "dry_up": 0.886211, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004352, "annualized_volatility": 0.037779, "from_high_reference": -0.027404, "from_low_reference": 0.006121 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.944939, "fair_value_reference": 24.715217, 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43.798676, "activity_lines": [ 25.694248, 25.698005, 25.810833, 25.896328 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.665, "volume": 76166, "typical_volume": 99362.9, "trend": 25.961825, "fair_value": 24.701896, "relative_strength": -8.582573, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.65775, "energy": 42.272186, "activity_lines": [ 25.68976, 25.690398, 25.785589, 25.876574 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.695, "volume": 133909, "typical_volume": 102986.6, "trend": 25.953475, "fair_value": 24.708517, "relative_strength": -9.129939, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.970592, "energy": 39.692756, "activity_lines": [ 25.693333, 25.689959, 25.766033, 25.85936 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.7203, "volume": 111823, "typical_volume": 103649.4, "trend": 25.944939, "fair_value": 24.715217, "relative_strength": -11.788576, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.167424, "energy": 36.163515, "activity_lines": [ 25.7031, 25.693828, 25.75122, 25.844316 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }