{ "ticker": { "uuid": "574e847b-22ab-46c9-952b-3891d4e98256", "symbol": "SPCK", "name": "The SPAC and New Issue ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.574, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.039, "architecture_energy": 10.064, "architecture_maturity": 8.319, "architecture_confidence": 74.242, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.8, "rotation_up": 30.95, "upward_expansion": 54.05, "deceleration": 80.35, "rotation_down": 26.3, "downward_expansion": 20.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.101293, 22.138756, 22.137125, 22.091468 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 22.02, "trend_reference": 22.033843, "distance_from_trend": -0.000628, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.779722, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.059687, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.181317, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.008011, "excess_performance": -0.179443, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000628, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004472, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.059687, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004796, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121813, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043955, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.008011, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.005393, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11115, "relative_activity": 0.461448, "balance": 1.005393, "dry_up": 0.92326, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030764, "annualized_volatility": 0.046293, "from_high_reference": -0.068528, "from_low_reference": 0.078688 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.033843, "fair_value_reference": 20.779722, "structural_low": 21.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.000865, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.006915, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.017857, "worst_return": -0.014615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.009978, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.056138, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.019541, "worst_return": -0.021206, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.017143, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.12065, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.074121, "worst_return": -0.022807, "sufficient": false }, 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}, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 22.225, "volume": 13415, "typical_volume": 22004.95, "trend": 21.98884, "fair_value": 20.720795, "relative_strength": -12.934318, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.069872, "energy": 16.414319, "activity_lines": [ 22.18544, 22.188462, 22.119853, 22.06304 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.2539, "volume": 60597, "typical_volume": 24917.8, "trend": 22.00591, "fair_value": 20.73611, "relative_strength": -8.696521, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.199296, "energy": 19.552354, "activity_lines": [ 22.211967, 22.204775, 22.139178, 22.080141 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.125, "volume": 14698, "typical_volume": 25090.6, "trend": 22.016243, "fair_value": 20.750972, "relative_strength": -7.43759, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.617665, "energy": 14.492292, "activity_lines": [ 22.184707, 22.191489, 22.144398, 22.087824 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.0779, "volume": 2545, "typical_volume": 23993.5, "trend": 22.025177, "fair_value": 20.7658, "relative_strength": -7.809302, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.262046, "energy": 11.943176, "activity_lines": [ 22.14908, 22.167458, 22.143919, 22.091802 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.02, "volume": 11115, "typical_volume": 24087.2, "trend": 22.033843, "fair_value": 20.779722, "relative_strength": -12.181317, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.039395, "energy": 10.064457, "activity_lines": [ 22.101293, 22.138756, 22.137125, 22.091468 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }