{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5755f2d2-4e55-475c-96a8-ee62f141c57d", "symbol": "CSIQ", "name": "Canadian Solar Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.696, "architecture_energy": 26.956, "architecture_maturity": 11.695, "architecture_confidence": 93.89, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.93, "rotation_up": 17.63, "upward_expansion": 1.9, "deceleration": 52.49, "rotation_down": 50.08, "downward_expansion": 75.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.989333, 15.084636, 15.799643, 15.989505 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.91, "trend_reference": 16.754, "distance_from_trend": -0.050376, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.513205, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.036529, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.891253, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.200101, "excess_performance": -0.387554, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050376, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.162419, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.036529, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130973, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.208913, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.238826, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.200101, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.554765, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9699799, "relative_activity": 0.742152, "balance": 0.554765, "dry_up": 0.81251, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.180772, "annualized_volatility": 0.710337, "from_high_reference": -0.54004, "from_low_reference": 0.690755 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.754, "fair_value_reference": 16.513205, "structural_low": 11.83, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.045455, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.04568, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.454424, "worst_return": -0.251004, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.098395, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.151531, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.429398, "worst_return": -0.358013, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.259215, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.368833, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.145383, "worst_return": -0.408992, 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-46.347494, "energy": 31.084002, "activity_lines": [ 15.551, 16.622727, 16.301762, 16.853312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.02, "volume": 12505007, "typical_volume": 13421815.8, "trend": 17.893, "fair_value": 17.040833, "relative_strength": -25.594898, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.525141, "energy": 38.008577, "activity_lines": [ 15.224, 16.216455, 16.181119, 16.651548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.95, "volume": 12113352, "typical_volume": 13510648.85, "trend": 17.575, "fair_value": 16.895769, "relative_strength": -22.705566, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.43141, "energy": 42.347265, "activity_lines": [ 15.016333, 15.828545, 16.077762, 16.461677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.35, "volume": 10705084, "typical_volume": 13540464.0, "trend": 17.214, "fair_value": 16.746731, "relative_strength": -29.708302, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.179809, "energy": 51.653296, "activity_lines": [ 14.394, 15.242636, 15.835167, 16.189097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.08, "volume": 9959258, "typical_volume": 13616262.4, "trend": 16.869667, "fair_value": 16.621603, "relative_strength": -21.110126, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.280978, "energy": 35.21056, "activity_lines": [ 14.543, 15.053636, 15.769952, 16.051419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.91, "volume": 9699799, "typical_volume": 13069829.7, "trend": 16.754, "fair_value": 16.513205, "relative_strength": -20.891253, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.695927, "energy": 26.955824, "activity_lines": [ 14.989333, 15.084636, 15.799643, 15.989505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }