{ "ticker": { "uuid": "575a1abd-b373-4c9e-8ef4-cb84c0d3397c", "symbol": "UNIP6", "name": "Unipar Carbocloro S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.596, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.356, "architecture_energy": 13.245, "architecture_maturity": 42.84, "architecture_confidence": 68.601, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.82, "rotation_up": 27.01, "upward_expansion": 26.67, "deceleration": 40.64, "rotation_down": 31.85, "downward_expansion": 48.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 61.592666, 61.320182, 61.234762, 61.767355 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 60.139999, "trend_reference": 62.501667, "distance_from_trend": -0.037786, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.985308, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.203154, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.226634, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.062656, "excess_performance": -0.005608, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.037786, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019818, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.203154, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065564, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.062266, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032968, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.062656, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.462532, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 878100, "relative_activity": 1.1253, "balance": 0.462532, "dry_up": 0.815846, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047927, "annualized_volatility": 0.303287, "from_high_reference": -0.17273, "from_low_reference": 0.179082 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 62.501667, "fair_value_reference": 49.985308, "structural_low": 57.040001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.000502, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.007312, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.25979, "worst_return": -0.072798, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.045004, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.114611, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.300582, "worst_return": -0.126048, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.014793, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.032913, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.384722, "worst_return": -0.285321, 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"2026-07-10", "close": 62.849998, "volume": 567500, "typical_volume": 1162985.0, "trend": 62.069333, "fair_value": 49.758669, "relative_strength": -5.054912, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.302006, "energy": 14.673844, "activity_lines": [ 61.067333, 60.804909, 61.240857, 61.935871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 61.689999, "volume": 444700, "typical_volume": 1083255.0, "trend": 62.222667, "fair_value": 49.821413, "relative_strength": -4.571104, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.871709, "energy": 14.101659, "activity_lines": [ 61.322666, 60.945818, 61.19419, 61.911398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 61.400002, "volume": 490500, "typical_volume": 970965.0, "trend": 62.286667, "fair_value": 49.880789, "relative_strength": -5.211529, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.429356, "energy": 15.918968, "activity_lines": [ 61.468, 61.046727, 61.161857, 61.858323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 63.19, "volume": 733200, "typical_volume": 889235.0, "trend": 62.453333, "fair_value": 49.933621, "relative_strength": -4.627687, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.07653, "energy": 12.746556, "activity_lines": [ 62.154667, 61.488364, 61.336333, 61.916602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.139999, "volume": 878100, "typical_volume": 780325.0, "trend": 62.501667, "fair_value": 49.985308, "relative_strength": -6.226634, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.356282, "energy": 13.244925, "activity_lines": [ 61.592666, 61.320182, 61.234762, 61.767355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }