{ "ticker": { "uuid": "575d1a0e-79d2-413e-80da-3d0f0a61f16b", "symbol": "IRVH", "name": "GLOBAL X FDS INTEREST RATE VOLATLTY & INFLTN HEDG ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "model_version": "ta-0.1.0", "as_of_week": "2026-07-31", "benchmark": "SPY", "history_weeks": 213, "chart_window_weeks": 156, "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "stage_color": "red", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "stage_age_weeks": 12, "hard_stage_exit": false, "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "transition_score": 61.042, "is_transition_watch": true, "confidence": 89.755, "composite_score": 76.417, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_color": "red", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.049, "architecture_energy": 68.254, "architecture_maturity": 54.605, "architecture_confidence": 90.095, "architecture_age_weeks": 20, "is_reacceleration_watch": false, "architecture": { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.049, "energy": 68.254, "maturity": 54.605, "confidence": 90.095, "confirmation": 96.35, "age_weeks": 20, "candidate": null, "candidate_weeks": 0, "hard_reversal": false, "reacceleration_watch": false, "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Activity Lines are bearishly ordered below the 30-week Trend Line, their slopes are negative and price is accepted below the fan. Repair requires contraction and an upward fast/slow rotation\u2014not merely one strong week." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.56, "rotation_up": 21.47, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 56.78, "rotation_down": 70.17, "downward_expansion": 90.0 }, "activity_lines": { "5": 19.1876, "10": 19.241038, "20": 19.369172, "30": 19.494878 }, "activity_slopes": { "5": -1.058691, "10": -1.14053, "20": -1.221202, "30": -1.183775 }, "bullish_order": 0.0, "bearish_order": 1.0, "fan_width_atr": 2.571714, "fan_width_change_4": -0.270362, "fan_width_percentile": 0.913462, "fast_slow_gap_atr": -1.822058, "fast_slow_gap_change_4": 0.102878, "price_acceptance": -1.0, "current_fan_distance_atr": -0.224298, "accepted_above": 0.0, "accepted_below": 1.0, "crossing_density": 0.0 }, "interpretation": { "headline": "The primary weekly trend is declining.", "body": "Price below a falling 30-week average with weak relative performance defines the defensive state. Bottom-fishing evidence is kept separate from a confirmed Stage 1 repair.", "phase": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "transition_context": "The evidence score for the next canonical transition is 61/100." }, "latest_close": 19.1608, "sma_30": 19.66625, "distance_from_sma_30": -0.025701, "sma_30_slope": -0.013588, "fair_value": 19.487765, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.016778, "fair_value_gap_change_13": -0.027824, "is_fair_value_repair": false, "mansfield_rs": -11.632332, "mansfield_rs_change_13": -0.673353, "range_position_52": 0.28053, "returns": { "13": -0.02847, "26": -0.04415, "52": -0.039479 }, "relative_returns": { "26": -0.129471, "52": -0.254314 }, "stage_scores": { "1": 61.61, "2": 13.83, "3": 49.16, "4": 86.17 }, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs 30-week average", "positive": false, "value": -0.025701, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "30-week slope", "positive": false, "value": -0.013588, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs 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"method": { "price_basis": "completed weekly OHLCV", "trend": "30-week simple moving average; slope compares the current value with ten completed weeks earlier", "fair_value": "current horizontal Fair Value is the arithmetic mean of up to 156 completed weekly closes; Stage 1 repair measures whether price is below and rising toward that anchor", "relative_strength": "Mansfield-style relative performance line: ticker/SPY divided by its trailing 52-week mean, minus one", "classification": "Trend Architecture uses the Activity Line position as a direction gate, then classifies ordering, four-week slopes, ATR-normalized fan width, fast/slow rotation and six-week price acceptance. Ordinary regime changes require two completed observations; a fully aligned reversal beyond the fan can change immediately.", "architecture_boundary": "The green/red/orange Trend gate is derived from the same Activity Lines and is therefore not counted as an independent vote. Relative strength and volume alter confirmation, while point-in-time Fair Value supplies context rather than determining the regime.", "admissibility": "Stage 2 cannot persist when price is more than 5% below the 30-week average or 8% below current Fair Value, the ten-week average slope is below -2%, Mansfield RS is below -8, or the 26-week return is below -15%. Stage 4 requires price no more than 5% above the average, RS no higher than +8, and at least one deterioration test: slope at or below +1.5%, 13-week return at or below -10%, or 26-week return at or below -12%. These are exit boundaries, not entry signals.", "confidence": "separation between the leading and runner-up stage evidence scores; not forecast probability" }, "historical_outcomes": [ { "weeks": 4, "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.002712, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.01886, "stage_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.022777, "worst_return": -0.011891, "sufficient": true }, { "weeks": 13, "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.02413, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.002433, "stage_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.033807, "worst_return": 0.003705, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 26, "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.041796, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.011469, "stage_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.045956, "worst_return": 0.037637, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 52, "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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