{ "ticker": { "uuid": "575d37e7-7340-489a-af04-63a65c816fe9", "symbol": "DXAU", "name": "Dynamic Active Global Gold ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.04, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 0.243, "architecture_energy": 9.901, "architecture_maturity": 38.514, "architecture_confidence": 60.956, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.2, "rotation_up": 34.18, "upward_expansion": 20.06, "deceleration": 44.02, "rotation_down": 15.43, "downward_expansion": 54.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.762665, 50.158181, 50.762523, 52.023118 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 58.509998, "trend_reference": 54.104333, "distance_from_trend": 0.081429, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 39.262846, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.490213, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.330934, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.037227, "excess_performance": -0.083194, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081429, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013845, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.490213, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042035, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.023309, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029699, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.037227, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.502459, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4361, "relative_activity": 0.796581, "balance": 0.502459, "dry_up": 1.103815, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063842, "annualized_volatility": 0.547707, "from_high_reference": -0.138926, "from_low_reference": 0.700091 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.104333, "fair_value_reference": 39.262846, "structural_low": 45.689999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.127637, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009441, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07776, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01454, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-08-07", 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5358, "typical_volume": 5770.0, "trend": 54.225, "fair_value": 38.986074, "relative_strength": -10.419445, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.427583, "energy": 40.973065, "activity_lines": [ 48.149333, 48.387999, 50.335618, 52.085096 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.799999, "volume": 9312, "typical_volume": 5898.9, "trend": 54.045666, "fair_value": 39.07954, "relative_strength": -11.47856, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.280934, "energy": 35.189453, "activity_lines": [ 48.384666, 48.366363, 50.069571, 51.735096 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 58.509998, "volume": 4361, "typical_volume": 5474.65, "trend": 54.104333, "fair_value": 39.262846, "relative_strength": 2.330934, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.243125, "energy": 9.900874, "activity_lines": [ 51.762665, 50.158181, 50.762523, 52.023118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }