{ "ticker": { "uuid": "57647b8c-0350-42bb-b6a8-603999951d8f", "symbol": "SMD100", "name": "SMD Rise Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.136, "architecture_energy": 52.152, "architecture_maturity": 98.4, "architecture_confidence": 91.966, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.11, "rotation_up": 27.96, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 38.46, "downward_expansion": 67.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.161333, 1.146182, 1.230022, 1.347864 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.16, "trend_reference": 1.531346, "distance_from_trend": -0.242497, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.873485, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.596309, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -54.680252, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.396606, "excess_performance": -0.588931, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.242497, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.228043, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.596309, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097535, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.546803, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025656, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.396606, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.408438, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 478900, "relative_activity": 0.587658, "balance": 0.408438, "dry_up": 0.512467, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072281, "annualized_volatility": 0.323124, "from_high_reference": -0.695256, "from_low_reference": 0.104762 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.531346, "fair_value_reference": 2.873485, "structural_low": 1.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.052162, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.084312, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.053571, "worst_return": -0.157895, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12782, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-15", "close": 3.856934, "volume": 1988100, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-22", "close": 4.821168, "volume": 11317200, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": 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897655.0, "trend": 1.603324, "fair_value": 2.91199, "relative_strength": -57.857555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.073811, "energy": 63.606315, "activity_lines": [ 1.146, 1.146727, 1.271468, 1.402642 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.16, "volume": 154000, "typical_volume": 863285.0, "trend": 1.565733, "fair_value": 2.892524, "relative_strength": -56.209186, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.979567, "energy": 55.895523, "activity_lines": [ 1.156667, 1.144909, 1.24925, 1.37404 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.16, "volume": 478900, "typical_volume": 814930.0, "trend": 1.531346, "fair_value": 2.873485, "relative_strength": -54.680252, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.136327, "energy": 52.15193, "activity_lines": [ 1.161333, 1.146182, 1.230022, 1.347864 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }