{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5768cbf3-6ef4-4d08-8504-72aac88e4143", "symbol": "IS3U", "name": "iShares MSCI France UCITS ETF", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.589, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.407, "architecture_energy": 80.124, "architecture_maturity": 22.139, "architecture_confidence": 84.685, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 69.27, "upward_expansion": 90.3, "deceleration": 47.12, "rotation_down": 17.58, "downward_expansion": 16.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 67.245997, 66.735998, 65.564046, 64.731117 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 68.839996, "trend_reference": 63.934, "distance_from_trend": 0.076735, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 58.123354, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.184378, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.390385, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.082901, "excess_performance": 0.018261, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076735, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022835, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.184378, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079447, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.013904, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004539, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.082901, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.383602, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1888, "relative_activity": 0.168827, "balance": 6.383602, "dry_up": 0.820438, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019767, "annualized_volatility": 0.160681, "from_high_reference": -0.002608, "from_low_reference": 0.189357 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.934, "fair_value_reference": 58.123354, "structural_low": 57.880001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.001119, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003939, "regime_survival": 0.71875, "best_return": 0.088739, "worst_return": -0.10279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.001809, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.00138, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.085564, "worst_return": -0.083994, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.068887, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.006681, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.099843, "worst_return": -0.138489, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": 1.769711, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.791832, "energy": 52.061577, "activity_lines": [ 66.434664, 66.182908, 65.102856, 64.403999 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 68.839996, "volume": 1888, "typical_volume": 11183.05, "trend": 63.934, "fair_value": 58.123354, "relative_strength": 1.390385, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.406789, "energy": 80.124093, "activity_lines": [ 67.245997, 66.735998, 65.564046, 64.731117 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }