{ "ticker": { "uuid": "576bad99-c0c9-4899-94b7-0fae075c264e", "symbol": "SNIK", "name": "WisdomTree Nickel 1x Daily Short", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.24, "architecture_energy": 63.727, "architecture_maturity": 12.751, "architecture_confidence": 76.019, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.73, "rotation_up": 62.51, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 59.23, "rotation_down": 20.53, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.5004, 5.480609, 5.25355, 5.188653 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.396, "trend_reference": 5.1263, "distance_from_trend": 0.052611, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.547032, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.027228, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.314456, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.039291, "excess_performance": -0.131601, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052611, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042073, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.027228, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.138057, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.163145, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.131962, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.039291, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.215797, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 4.215797, "dry_up": 0.0135, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024491, "annualized_volatility": 0.239449, "from_high_reference": -0.15819, "from_low_reference": 0.183853 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.1263, "fair_value_reference": 5.547032, "structural_low": 4.558, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.03368, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": 0.000152, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.10449, "worst_return": -0.121128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.036527, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.111456, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.299931, "worst_return": -0.15481, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.076085, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.203333, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.287122, "worst_return": -0.258017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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5.521013, "relative_strength": -10.918004, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 57.205763, "energy": 84.918535, "activity_lines": [ 5.5728, 5.353127, 5.14811, 5.119911 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.657, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1183.75, "trend": 5.130733, "fair_value": 5.531272, "relative_strength": -10.326359, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.29299, "energy": 91.556122, "activity_lines": [ 5.624, 5.440373, 5.202007, 5.153582 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.396, "volume": 58, "typical_volume": 1181.65, "trend": 5.117667, "fair_value": 5.540295, "relative_strength": -14.416571, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.140828, "energy": 87.102079, "activity_lines": [ 5.559, 5.465955, 5.228505, 5.170696 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.396, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1074.1, "trend": 5.1263, "fair_value": 5.547032, "relative_strength": -16.314456, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.240405, "energy": 63.726883, "activity_lines": [ 5.5004, 5.480609, 5.25355, 5.188653 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }