{ "ticker": { "uuid": "576e88bd-1858-457b-9bdc-e81730408aa4", "symbol": "RWJ", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR II S&P SMALLCAP 600 REVENUE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.76, "architecture_energy": 66.522, "architecture_maturity": 44.199, "architecture_confidence": 84.138, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.38, "rotation_up": 71.53, "upward_expansion": 89.11, "deceleration": 52.34, "rotation_down": 19.76, "downward_expansion": 11.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 61.047967, 60.33848, 58.543651, 56.902008 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 61.9259, "trend_reference": 55.112143, "distance_from_trend": 0.123634, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.685357, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.385821, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.220321, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.134722, "excess_performance": 0.009097, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.123634, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071129, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.385821, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081891, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.062203, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028238, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.134722, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.101707, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 389523, "relative_activity": 0.966247, "balance": 3.101707, "dry_up": 1.023025, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03287, "annualized_volatility": 0.167451, "from_high_reference": -0.01486, "from_low_reference": 0.426303 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.112143, "fair_value_reference": 44.685357, "structural_low": 48.184284, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.020975, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.000723, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.129906, "worst_return": -0.08501, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.022677, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.01639, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.097779, "worst_return": -0.046116, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.026156, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.020093, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.172751, "worst_return": -0.055424, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 382314, "typical_volume": 404346.7, "trend": 54.000462, "fair_value": 44.251805, "relative_strength": 9.415225, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.34008, "energy": 86.362753, "activity_lines": [ 59.895029, 58.8695, 56.951752, 55.601969 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 60.46, "volume": 469314, "typical_volume": 405888.15, "trend": 54.367787, "fair_value": 44.391569, "relative_strength": 9.166438, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.17992, "energy": 74.447569, "activity_lines": [ 60.192387, 59.36327, 57.473155, 56.018714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 60.9, "volume": 408497, "typical_volume": 404304.75, "trend": 54.767057, "fair_value": 44.534277, "relative_strength": 8.422764, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.47046, "energy": 64.2656, "activity_lines": [ 60.482193, 59.810659, 57.98769, 56.440147 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 61.9259, "volume": 389523, "typical_volume": 403130.0, "trend": 55.112143, "fair_value": 44.685357, "relative_strength": 6.220321, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.759793, "energy": 66.521605, "activity_lines": [ 61.047967, 60.33848, 58.543651, 56.902008 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }