{ "ticker": { "uuid": "57755d57-c25f-40d5-bd13-786f7b0e68e3", "symbol": "ESGW", "name": "Invesco MSCI World Universal Screened UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.341, "architecture_energy": 69.849, "architecture_maturity": 90.533, "architecture_confidence": 66.305, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.33, "rotation_up": 55.11, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.48, "rotation_down": 29.28, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 91.480001, 91.101092, 89.635334, 87.657377 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 93.550003, "trend_reference": 85.354667, "distance_from_trend": 0.096015, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 72.466667, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.290938, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.489367, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.162401, "excess_performance": -0.008491, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.096015, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043724, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.290938, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049677, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024894, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003399, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.162401, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.037471, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3071, "relative_activity": 1.758022, "balance": 5.037471, "dry_up": 0.617969, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016281, "annualized_volatility": 0.109517, "from_high_reference": -0.000961, "from_low_reference": 0.261802 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 85.354667, "fair_value_reference": 72.466667, "structural_low": 77.019997, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.012316, "positive_rate": 0.657895, "directional_follow_through": 0.657895, "median_excess_return": -0.008926, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.06333, "worst_return": -0.087911, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.035844, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.001268, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.107064, "worst_return": -0.062045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.080855, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.015423, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.155404, "worst_return": -0.09067, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"close": 90.440002, "volume": 361, "typical_volume": 2109.15, "trend": 84.331334, "fair_value": 71.796026, "relative_strength": -2.70156, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.96355, "energy": 67.374805, "activity_lines": [ 90.952001, 90.414183, 88.176906, 86.362452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 90.110001, "volume": 440, "typical_volume": 2067.75, "trend": 84.656001, "fair_value": 72.006475, "relative_strength": -2.813717, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.97701, "energy": 65.447576, "activity_lines": [ 90.692001, 90.461819, 88.589049, 86.73527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 90.379997, "volume": 446, "typical_volume": 2031.2, "trend": 84.981334, "fair_value": 72.225128, "relative_strength": -3.047043, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.76687, "energy": 60.80547, "activity_lines": [ 90.568666, 90.506727, 88.985477, 87.10456 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 93.550003, "volume": 3071, "typical_volume": 1746.85, "trend": 85.354667, "fair_value": 72.466667, "relative_strength": -2.489367, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.340529, "energy": 69.848683, "activity_lines": [ 91.480001, 91.101092, 89.635334, 87.657377 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }