{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5775cedf-5a2f-47d3-bb12-884f68bc5985", "symbol": "3224", "name": "MetaTech (AP) Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.77, "architecture_energy": 71.801, "architecture_maturity": 62.097, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.58, "rotation_up": 22.12, "upward_expansion": 17.57, "deceleration": 37.64, "rotation_down": 60.32, "downward_expansion": 93.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.366667, 35.962727, 37.669048, 39.022043 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 35.650002, "trend_reference": 40.838333, "distance_from_trend": -0.127046, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 43.536218, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.181142, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.943756, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.200673, "excess_performance": -0.642045, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.127046, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071117, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.181142, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125751, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.419438, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070282, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.200673, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.168568, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 144001, "relative_activity": 0.160264, "balance": 0.168568, "dry_up": 0.214544, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064085, "annualized_volatility": 0.437957, "from_high_reference": -0.327358, "from_low_reference": 0.110592 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.838333, "fair_value_reference": 43.536218, "structural_low": 32.099998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.010164, "positive_rate": 0.535714, "directional_follow_through": 0.464286, "median_excess_return": -0.008744, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.249275, "worst_return": -0.224308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.074116, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.023593, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.354885, "worst_return": -0.187865, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.04284, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.093994, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.361285, "worst_return": -0.073501, 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43.875321, "relative_strength": -43.538713, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.524177, "energy": 46.20233, "activity_lines": [ 37.883333, 38.873636, 40.482619, 41.479355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 37.049999, "volume": 166186, "typical_volume": 1009449.4, "trend": 42.413333, "fair_value": 43.808333, "relative_strength": -43.292527, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.417072, "energy": 39.44628, "activity_lines": [ 37.596666, 38.240909, 40.06119, 41.114946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.849998, "volume": 399241, "typical_volume": 990011.4, "trend": 42.113333, "fair_value": 43.732372, "relative_strength": -42.652074, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.324219, "energy": 52.985718, "activity_lines": [ 36.673333, 37.454545, 39.461666, 40.626989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.200001, "volume": 176003, "typical_volume": 902711.1, "trend": 41.863333, "fair_value": 43.676603, "relative_strength": -41.00236, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.986743, "energy": 56.822007, "activity_lines": [ 36.36, 37.065454, 39.029047, 40.245484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.0, "volume": 356090, "typical_volume": 908775.25, "trend": 41.55, "fair_value": 43.627564, "relative_strength": -41.329962, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.601195, "energy": 70.724058, "activity_lines": [ 35.79, 36.563636, 38.508095, 39.802688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.0, "volume": 95000, "typical_volume": 901025.0, "trend": 41.2, "fair_value": 43.582051, "relative_strength": -41.852204, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.337877, "energy": 76.877671, "activity_lines": [ 35.356667, 36.165454, 38.034047, 39.380107 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 35.650002, "volume": 144001, "typical_volume": 898524.9, "trend": 40.838333, "fair_value": 43.536218, "relative_strength": -41.943756, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.770175, "energy": 71.800895, "activity_lines": [ 35.366667, 35.962727, 37.669048, 39.022043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }