{ "ticker": { "uuid": "577bd1e5-a419-4b4f-9bb2-6f891d3756dc", "symbol": "TOLZ", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST BROOKFIELD GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 74.264, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -4.817, "architecture_energy": 4.107, "architecture_maturity": 5.414, "architecture_confidence": 80.611, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 72.95, "rotation_up": 32.36, "upward_expansion": 46.6, "deceleration": 46.86, "rotation_down": 20.81, "downward_expansion": 27.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 59.784407, 59.849384, 59.891301, 59.89745 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 58.9569, "trend_reference": 59.547071, "distance_from_trend": -0.009911, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.160796, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.199267, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.660343, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.024279, "excess_performance": -0.101346, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009911, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035585, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.199267, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047264, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.076603, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034052, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.024279, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.179218, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35966, "relative_activity": 0.35128, "balance": 1.179218, "dry_up": 1.326766, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023913, "annualized_volatility": 0.146366, "from_high_reference": -0.049159, "from_low_reference": 0.138136 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 59.547071, "fair_value_reference": 49.160796, "structural_low": 57.468615, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.001041, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.003657, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.059321, "worst_return": -0.139406, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.010715, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.03949, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.058169, "worst_return": -0.081051, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.027053, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.013343, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.118486, "worst_return": -0.007268, 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58.959724, "fair_value": 48.786088, "relative_strength": -1.736854, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.394226, "energy": 20.818047, "activity_lines": [ 60.00535, 59.922576, 59.941624, 59.774856 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 60.6904, "volume": 398010, "typical_volume": 113647.75, "trend": 59.187238, "fair_value": 48.912771, "relative_strength": -0.808395, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.989472, "energy": 26.356624, "activity_lines": [ 60.29494, 60.065697, 60.008618, 59.886513 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.77, "volume": 76175, "typical_volume": 105085.55, "trend": 59.370134, "fair_value": 49.040529, "relative_strength": -3.259474, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.417192, "energy": 21.289438, "activity_lines": [ 60.157813, 60.019366, 59.987356, 59.92411 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 58.9569, "volume": 35966, "typical_volume": 102385.45, "trend": 59.547071, "fair_value": 49.160796, "relative_strength": -7.660343, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.817396, "energy": 4.106858, "activity_lines": [ 59.784407, 59.849384, 59.891301, 59.89745 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }