{ "ticker": { "uuid": "57858aac-d875-47af-8008-733c3fbbc78c", "symbol": "EMBD", "name": "GLOBAL X FDS EMERGING MKTS BD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 91.783, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 15.318, "architecture_energy": 12.315, "architecture_maturity": 10.849, "architecture_confidence": 69.461, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.81, "rotation_up": 23.6, "upward_expansion": 46.39, "deceleration": 79.0, "rotation_down": 32.23, "downward_expansion": 26.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.559697, 23.623238, 23.625635, 23.57991 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 23.6497, "trend_reference": 23.547102, "distance_from_trend": 0.004357, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.264725, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.112156, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.696803, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.004481, "excess_performance": -0.121144, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004357, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005257, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.112156, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021873, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.096968, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013745, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.004481, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.005711, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 148054, "relative_activity": 1.427451, "balance": 1.005711, "dry_up": 0.849698, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014408, "annualized_volatility": 0.058884, "from_high_reference": -0.026824, "from_low_reference": 0.063752 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.547102, "fair_value_reference": 21.264725, "structural_low": 22.819205, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.004387, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.015132, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.059304, "worst_return": -0.069115, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.039073, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.001398, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.060464, "worst_return": 0.021204, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.056972, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.005927, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.067182, "worst_return": 0.033615, 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"close": 23.665465, "volume": 68599, "typical_volume": 224588.0, "trend": 23.535788, "fair_value": 21.168153, "relative_strength": -6.677586, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.485509, "energy": 17.707335, "activity_lines": [ 23.696941, 23.704023, 23.625891, 23.582785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.456477, "volume": 48805, "typical_volume": 134533.5, "trend": 23.536574, "fair_value": 21.199027, "relative_strength": -6.781258, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.360041, "energy": 12.661129, "activity_lines": [ 23.6028, 23.665223, 23.619896, 23.577668 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.461453, "volume": 87062, "typical_volume": 103351.9, "trend": 23.53984, "fair_value": 21.231055, "relative_strength": -7.522861, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.656563, "energy": 9.758423, "activity_lines": [ 23.538347, 23.626617, 23.614439, 23.572822 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.6497, "volume": 148054, "typical_volume": 103719.15, "trend": 23.547102, "fair_value": 21.264725, "relative_strength": -9.696803, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.317927, "energy": 12.315248, "activity_lines": [ 23.559697, 23.623238, 23.625635, 23.57991 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }