{ "ticker": { "uuid": "578a1890-43b9-4dcc-bb80-65d06466550a", "symbol": "AKFYE", "name": "Akfen Yenilenebilir Enerji A.S.", "exchange": "IST", "country": "TR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "benchmark": "XU100.IS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.422, "architecture_energy": 17.985, "architecture_maturity": 22.563, "architecture_confidence": 94.613, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.04, "rotation_up": 35.32, "upward_expansion": 54.76, "deceleration": 84.06, "rotation_down": 26.54, "downward_expansion": 20.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.942666, 24.047272, 23.977714, 23.604387 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 25.42, "trend_reference": 22.799667, "distance_from_trend": 0.114929, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.195577, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.258691, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.867312, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.188962, "excess_performance": 0.083989, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.114929, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101469, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.258691, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087768, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.108673, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078548, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.188962, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.81623, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 111742812, "relative_activity": 4.592189, "balance": 1.81623, "dry_up": 2.19019, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087151, "annualized_volatility": 0.590981, "from_high_reference": -0.12766, "from_low_reference": 0.566235 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.799667, "fair_value_reference": 20.195577, "structural_low": 19.34, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.021665, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.01489, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.131653, "worst_return": -0.118511, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.041457, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.069575, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.218928, "worst_return": -0.216454, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.020168, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.200659, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.466227, "worst_return": -0.192948, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.98482, "energy": 18.395824, "activity_lines": [ 23.956, 24.154545, 23.900095, 23.34372 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 23.58, "volume": 31041087, "typical_volume": 22194252.7, "trend": 22.489333, "fair_value": 20.077051, "relative_strength": 1.72151, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.475146, "energy": 17.172427, "activity_lines": [ 23.701333, 24.079273, 23.90781, 23.424581 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 22.459999, "volume": 25329224, "typical_volume": 21075198.5, "trend": 22.603667, "fair_value": 20.126538, "relative_strength": 1.30047, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.282483, "energy": 10.570953, "activity_lines": [ 23.281333, 23.797454, 23.80419, 23.422688 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 25.42, "volume": 111742812, "typical_volume": 24333236.65, "trend": 22.799667, "fair_value": 20.195577, "relative_strength": 10.867312, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.421662, "energy": 17.984601, "activity_lines": [ 23.942666, 24.047272, 23.977714, 23.604387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }