{ "ticker": { "uuid": "578c6170-ebd9-4a12-b2a9-24dd7320de9e", "symbol": "CARB", "name": "WisdomTree Carbon", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 55.257, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.942, "architecture_energy": 69.592, "architecture_maturity": 8.651, "architecture_confidence": 76.23, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.43, "rotation_up": 66.2, "upward_expansion": 88.16, "deceleration": 47.46, "rotation_down": 15.7, "downward_expansion": 14.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.888334, 25.593455, 25.035786, 24.511516 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 26.305, "trend_reference": 24.286, "distance_from_trend": 0.083134, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.559135, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.116552, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.405171, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.059831, "excess_performance": -0.111061, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.083134, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020746, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.116552, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124345, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094052, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052166, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.059831, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.444552, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7311, "relative_activity": 0.990798, "balance": 5.444552, "dry_up": 0.869439, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03458, "annualized_volatility": 0.261615, "from_high_reference": -0.106032, "from_low_reference": 0.323855 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.286, "fair_value_reference": 23.559135, "structural_low": 19.870001, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.017695, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.040023, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.05507, "worst_return": -0.140234, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.126513, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.122114, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.10803, "worst_return": -0.194439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.059336, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.143528, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.014218, "worst_return": -0.174912, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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14351.85, "trend": 24.539, "fair_value": 23.63609, "relative_strength": -12.87132, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.953631, "energy": 52.953135, "activity_lines": [ 25.182667, 24.948818, 24.3005, 24.149828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.075001, "volume": 4691, "typical_volume": 12680.45, "trend": 24.463334, "fair_value": 23.604006, "relative_strength": -11.236511, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.643462, "energy": 45.665058, "activity_lines": [ 25.176334, 25.018546, 24.436929, 24.184409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.334999, "volume": 9051, "typical_volume": 10862.9, "trend": 24.416167, "fair_value": 23.585385, "relative_strength": -6.455333, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.799359, "energy": 53.587547, "activity_lines": [ 25.540667, 25.291636, 24.678762, 24.305161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.655001, "volume": 4609, "typical_volume": 9319.75, "trend": 24.345333, "fair_value": 23.573526, "relative_strength": -9.265662, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.193243, "energy": 53.453727, "activity_lines": [ 25.617, 25.396364, 24.835667, 24.385086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.305, "volume": 7311, "typical_volume": 7378.9, "trend": 24.286, "fair_value": 23.559135, "relative_strength": -9.405171, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.941986, "energy": 69.591688, "activity_lines": [ 25.888334, 25.593455, 25.035786, 24.511516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }