{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5795e3d2-92cd-4a87-89a3-36b8fababc55", "symbol": "603866", "name": "Toly Bread Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.228, "architecture_energy": 26.32, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.895, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.35, "rotation_up": 28.15, "upward_expansion": 17.62, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 27.14, "downward_expansion": 65.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.178, 4.075273, 4.237796, 4.439443 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.28, "trend_reference": 4.722746, "distance_from_trend": -0.093748, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.862545, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.269942, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.944504, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.220401, "excess_performance": -0.177197, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.093748, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088756, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.269942, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022757, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.149445, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044013, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.220401, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.392668, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 61607381, "relative_activity": 1.36437, "balance": 0.392668, "dry_up": 1.593892, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06517, "annualized_volatility": 0.295008, "from_high_reference": -0.280672, "from_low_reference": 0.163043 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.722746, "fair_value_reference": 5.862545, "structural_low": 3.68, 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"fair_value": 5.927151, "relative_strength": -19.798885, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.791779, "energy": 62.993506, "activity_lines": [ 3.948667, 4.006377, 4.270771, 4.49969 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.33, "volume": 73428993, "typical_volume": 45947409.1, "trend": 4.755412, "fair_value": 5.894682, "relative_strength": -12.137727, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.532211, "energy": 41.9041, "activity_lines": [ 4.092667, 4.043158, 4.254236, 4.470115 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.28, "volume": 61607381, "typical_volume": 45154467.55, "trend": 4.722746, "fair_value": 5.862545, "relative_strength": -14.944504, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.228184, "energy": 26.320441, "activity_lines": [ 4.178, 4.075273, 4.237796, 4.439443 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }