{ "ticker": { "uuid": "57981c8c-37d5-46c2-a3b8-15a70489ce83", "symbol": "KSM-F6", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds Ltd. - KSM ETF (4D) LBMA Gold Price PM USD", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.491, "architecture_energy": 64.056, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 65.777, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.19, "rotation_up": 27.99, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 50.37, "downward_expansion": 70.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 96.080779, 95.471614, 2797.679931, 4988.108887 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 99.2496, "trend_reference": 7558.996156, "distance_from_trend": -0.98687, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7798.725094, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.987274, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.976878, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.991583, "excess_performance": -1.020483, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.98687, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.317921, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.987274, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.296132, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.989769, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.776046, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.991583, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.559804, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3179, "relative_activity": 0.608788, "balance": 0.559804, "dry_up": 0.8463, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 8.382602, "annualized_volatility": 6.351865, "from_high_reference": -0.992515, "from_low_reference": 0.0788 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7558.996156, "fair_value_reference": 7798.725094, "structural_low": 92.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.008522, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.016835, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.038494, "worst_return": -0.037972, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.054323, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.064113, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.108354, "worst_return": 0.002593, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.118668, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.11585, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.126109, "worst_return": 0.111228, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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}, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 95.0, "volume": 7163, "typical_volume": 5740.1, "trend": 7922.454503, "fair_value": 7835.179583, "relative_strength": -99.040464, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.9107, "energy": 67.882802, "activity_lines": [ 94.550339, 270.855961, 3351.711565, 5492.831784 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 99.2496, "volume": 3179, "typical_volume": 5221.85, "trend": 7558.996156, "fair_value": 7798.725094, "relative_strength": -98.976878, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.490854, "energy": 64.055824, "activity_lines": [ 96.080779, 95.471614, 2797.679931, 4988.108887 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }