{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5799b832-9bd5-4266-984b-60406ec4e665", "symbol": "WSRIC", "name": "UBS MSCI World Socially Responsible UCITS ETF hCHF acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 69.51, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.56, "architecture_energy": 44.977, "architecture_maturity": 61.194, "architecture_confidence": 73.324, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.86, "rotation_up": 43.75, "upward_expansion": 68.15, "deceleration": 85.44, "rotation_down": 27.29, "downward_expansion": 18.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.342667, 5.344491, 5.269162, 5.171592 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.477, "trend_reference": 5.079533, "distance_from_trend": 0.078249, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.603843, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.279706, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.020008, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.091471, "excess_performance": -0.011397, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.078249, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028735, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.279706, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085356, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.0102, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040734, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.091471, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.210182, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 159239, "relative_activity": 0.761464, "balance": 1.210182, "dry_up": 0.832587, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0225, "annualized_volatility": 0.155366, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.211726 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.079533, "fair_value_reference": 7.603843, "structural_low": 4.52, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.007472, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.012753, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.028395, "worst_return": -0.088972, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.049077, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.033251, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.088468, "worst_return": -0.070585, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.066894, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008058, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.184621, "worst_return": -0.636105, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.016182, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0012, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034675, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.048732, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000603, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012393, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039023, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008745, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01232, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 11.418, "volume": 33210, "typical_volume": 19832.7, "trend": 10.891467, "fair_value": 10.86259, "relative_strength": 8.260328, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", 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[ 5.2928, 5.314255, 5.233974, 5.144882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.477, "volume": 159239, "typical_volume": 209122.3, "trend": 5.079533, "fair_value": 7.603843, "relative_strength": -1.020008, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.559681, "energy": 44.976735, "activity_lines": [ 5.342667, 5.344491, 5.269162, 5.171592 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }