{ "ticker": { "uuid": "57a16e9b-125f-4362-986a-9c87e2a31821", "symbol": "FIW", "name": "FIRST TRUST EXCHANGE TRADED FUND WATER ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 61.086, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 48.342, "architecture_energy": 41.667, "architecture_maturity": 8.238, "architecture_confidence": 58.548, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.74, "rotation_up": 59.48, "upward_expansion": 49.94, "deceleration": 34.58, "rotation_down": 19.99, "downward_expansion": 12.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 110.003313, 109.015766, 107.259226, 107.020083 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 113.55, "trend_reference": 107.83669, "distance_from_trend": 0.052981, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 102.303598, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.109932, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.711989, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.014116, "excess_performance": -0.139741, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052981, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007663, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.109932, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061878, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.07712, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06915, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014116, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.404285, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 205373, "relative_activity": 0.751226, "balance": 2.404285, "dry_up": 0.839565, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032882, "annualized_volatility": 0.167931, "from_high_reference": -0.02183, "from_low_reference": 0.154548 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 107.83669, "fair_value_reference": 102.303598, "structural_low": 98.350161, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.004798, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.007147, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.090944, "worst_return": -0.09517, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.007909, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.010889, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.114931, "worst_return": -0.050593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.037496, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.02169, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.064504, "worst_return": -0.091499, 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"fair_value": 101.637453, "relative_strength": -9.643295, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.856321, "energy": 19.892538, "activity_lines": [ 107.674528, 105.942923, 105.533222, 106.605157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 107.93, "volume": 306560, "typical_volume": 283466.7, "trend": 107.995236, "fair_value": 101.768259, "relative_strength": -11.376037, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.121458, "energy": 25.67764, "activity_lines": [ 108.067497, 106.458879, 105.724927, 106.596184 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 108.32, "volume": 221476, "typical_volume": 281390.55, "trend": 107.952696, "fair_value": 101.886979, "relative_strength": -9.352546, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.249874, "energy": 29.715177, "activity_lines": [ 108.337144, 107.013503, 105.977395, 106.617137 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 107.6299, "volume": 195862, "typical_volume": 276155.15, "trend": 107.855212, "fair_value": 102.004544, "relative_strength": -9.091503, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.120563, "energy": 28.029435, "activity_lines": [ 108.176633, 107.389526, 106.189846, 106.596311 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 108.71, "volume": 295382, "typical_volume": 274279.75, "trend": 107.836319, "fair_value": 102.138653, "relative_strength": -8.855037, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.658966, "energy": 18.038391, "activity_lines": [ 108.259307, 107.823157, 106.505116, 106.651459 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 113.55, "volume": 205373, "typical_volume": 273383.6, "trend": 107.83669, "fair_value": 102.303598, "relative_strength": -7.711989, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 48.342295, "energy": 41.666781, "activity_lines": [ 110.003313, 109.015766, 107.259226, 107.020083 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }