{ "ticker": { "uuid": "57a66efd-ab95-4453-8583-4a55ffb36c82", "symbol": "BPF-UN", "name": "Boston Pizza Royalties Income Fund", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.177, "architecture_energy": 74.357, "architecture_maturity": 5.846, "architecture_confidence": 84.016, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.31, "rotation_up": 9.1, "upward_expansion": 17.32, "deceleration": 37.1, "rotation_down": 72.83, "downward_expansion": 90.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.531389, 22.933604, 23.415609, 23.635211 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.629999, "trend_reference": 23.772932, "distance_from_trend": -0.048077, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.285031, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.309225, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.065905, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.053623, "excess_performance": -0.174044, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.048077, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033809, "read": "Rising" 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21.629999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.004714, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027414, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.024635, "worst_return": -0.015207, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.027072, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.041874, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.027072, "worst_return": 0.027072, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.08426, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.050793, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.08426, "worst_return": 0.08426, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.848366, "energy": 46.864277, "activity_lines": [ 23.394353, 23.589572, 23.863038, 23.916688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.110001, "volume": 321078, "typical_volume": 162931.65, "trend": 23.788401, "fair_value": 17.168023, "relative_strength": -9.87259, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -53.073813, "energy": 61.793107, "activity_lines": [ 22.92579, 23.297059, 23.683475, 23.80866 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.25, "volume": 221627, "typical_volume": 162457.0, "trend": 23.780052, "fair_value": 17.225874, "relative_strength": -8.804395, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.918295, "energy": 76.729323, "activity_lines": [ 22.631156, 23.06661, 23.528014, 23.709408 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.629999, "volume": 120633, "typical_volume": 159977.8, "trend": 23.772932, "fair_value": 17.285031, "relative_strength": -10.065905, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.177465, "energy": 74.35651, "activity_lines": [ 22.531389, 22.933604, 23.415609, 23.635211 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }