{ "ticker": { "uuid": "57a69d4e-a01f-4735-9df0-403bba4b37d3", "symbol": "001296", "name": "Chongqing Changjiang River Moulding Material (Group) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.974, "architecture_energy": 55.936, "architecture_maturity": 48.493, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.73, "rotation_up": 22.52, "upward_expansion": 9.11, "deceleration": 55.02, "rotation_down": 55.6, "downward_expansion": 80.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.877334, 18.298982, 19.594082, 21.076947 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.940001, "trend_reference": 23.207444, "distance_from_trend": -0.140793, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.56406, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.074119, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.522874, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.319222, "excess_performance": -0.326621, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.140793, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095197, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.074119, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.22852, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.185229, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008956, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.319222, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.461903, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11299027, "relative_activity": 1.105546, "balance": 0.461903, "dry_up": 1.259598, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096069, "annualized_volatility": 0.456386, "from_high_reference": -0.408607, "from_low_reference": 0.321405 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.207444, "fair_value_reference": 18.56406, "structural_low": 15.09, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.024744, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.061752, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.113345, "worst_return": -0.142618, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.137361, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.036099, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.165891, "worst_return": 0.10883, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.029411, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.127267, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.029411, "worst_return": 0.029411, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"relative_strength": -33.581732, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.759052, "energy": 70.708692, "activity_lines": [ 17.459932, 18.407829, 20.139494, 21.726251 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.190001, "volume": 10396944, "typical_volume": 10161134.45, "trend": 23.418444, "fair_value": 18.534124, "relative_strength": -26.321225, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.013251, "energy": 79.947528, "activity_lines": [ 17.13618, 18.063224, 19.71524, 21.301362 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.940001, "volume": 11299027, "typical_volume": 10220313.35, "trend": 23.207444, "fair_value": 18.56406, "relative_strength": -18.522874, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.974456, "energy": 55.935804, "activity_lines": [ 17.877334, 18.298982, 19.594082, 21.076947 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }