{ "ticker": { "uuid": "57ac72f1-701d-4298-b7c4-1dc1cf94fdd7", "symbol": "GRF", "name": "Grifols, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 39.302, "architecture_energy": 54.965, "architecture_maturity": 8.838, "architecture_confidence": 69.613, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.25, "rotation_up": 68.62, "upward_expansion": 48.99, "deceleration": 23.87, "rotation_down": 16.83, "downward_expansion": 26.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.8042, 9.482212, 9.290986, 9.33991 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.175, "trend_reference": 9.594763, "distance_from_trend": 0.060474, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.145786, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.002879, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.968188, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.063937, "excess_performance": -0.188368, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060474, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049284, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.002879, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.148855, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.169682, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097836, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.063937, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.541861, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6745967, "relative_activity": 0.684166, "balance": 1.541861, "dry_up": 1.060225, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046444, "annualized_volatility": 0.282608, "from_high_reference": -0.209709, "from_low_reference": 0.206713 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.594763, "fair_value_reference": 10.145786, "structural_low": 8.432, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.011842, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.014201, "regime_survival": 0.307692, "best_return": 0.265169, "worst_return": -0.081058, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.067001, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.064147, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.207416, "worst_return": -0.154318, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.055915, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.115405, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.193511, "worst_return": -0.466067, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.001082, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.191035, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.435005, "worst_return": -0.22048, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.083893, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040785, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080084, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.13371, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053859, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.188506, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.087645, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013242, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.18017, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114618, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.063578, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002737, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.137472, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013446, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 13.096584, "volume": 4088319, "typical_volume": 6872425.3, "trend": 11.325794, "fair_value": 16.884644, "relative_strength": 13.842086, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early 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35.669626, "activity_lines": [ 8.980539, 9.019197, 9.052003, 9.330827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.078, "volume": 8965658, "typical_volume": 10190955.25, "trend": 9.718229, "fair_value": 10.202995, "relative_strength": -24.881609, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.354512, "energy": 30.181319, "activity_lines": [ 9.010908, 9.026962, 9.043437, 9.285475 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.656, "volume": 10795925, "typical_volume": 10007080.15, "trend": 9.673763, "fair_value": 10.181637, "relative_strength": -20.725545, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.152638, "energy": 6.015637, "activity_lines": [ 9.225498, 9.135822, 9.097309, 9.28146 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.04, "volume": 15308302, "typical_volume": 10090811.7, "trend": 9.635263, "fair_value": 10.1635, "relative_strength": -17.382072, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 16.357697, "energy": 23.835486, "activity_lines": [ 9.5256, 9.302732, 9.189676, 9.305088 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.175, "volume": 6745967, "typical_volume": 9860138.95, "trend": 9.594763, "fair_value": 10.145786, "relative_strength": -16.968188, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.302317, "energy": 54.964961, "activity_lines": [ 9.8042, 9.482212, 9.290986, 9.33991 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }