{ "ticker": { "uuid": "57b36846-e84d-4cdf-8a15-65e4e22e60f7", "symbol": "IMCR", "name": "Immunocore Holdings Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 92.129, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 34.624, "architecture_energy": 57.778, "architecture_maturity": 12.948, "architecture_confidence": 53.443, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.81, "rotation_up": 66.61, "upward_expansion": 59.87, "deceleration": 24.57, "rotation_down": 17.24, "downward_expansion": 20.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.140667, 33.068, 31.493238, 31.208516 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 34.0, "trend_reference": 31.283, "distance_from_trend": 0.086852, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 39.735, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.144331, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.759754, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.063164, "excess_performance": -0.124289, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086852, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044638, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.144331, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.154641, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097598, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.168734, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.063164, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.208101, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2805617, "relative_activity": 1.188076, "balance": 2.208101, "dry_up": 1.164343, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078012, "annualized_volatility": 0.283893, "from_high_reference": -0.164921, "from_low_reference": 0.233896 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.283, "fair_value_reference": 39.735, "structural_low": 27.555, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.033719, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00663, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.067866, "worst_return": -0.000428, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.031417, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.126474, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.031417, "worst_return": -0.031417, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.452036, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.630011, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.452036, "worst_return": -0.452036, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"typical_volume": 2257381.35, "trend": 31.286333, "fair_value": 40.299103, "relative_strength": -4.594025, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.993863, "energy": 44.544179, "activity_lines": [ 32.697333, 31.186364, 30.384476, 30.626237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.0, "volume": 2733906, "typical_volume": 2275756.95, "trend": 31.248667, "fair_value": 40.101795, "relative_strength": -2.537963, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.578201, "energy": 59.818299, "activity_lines": [ 33.771333, 32.060727, 30.83481, 30.865828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.81, "volume": 1703567, "typical_volume": 2298895.1, "trend": 31.249667, "fair_value": 39.913782, "relative_strength": -5.999812, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.7269, "energy": 59.832484, "activity_lines": [ 34.022, 32.592364, 31.162, 31.031075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.0, "volume": 2805617, "typical_volume": 2361479.75, "trend": 31.283, "fair_value": 39.735, "relative_strength": -9.759754, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.624183, "energy": 57.777714, "activity_lines": [ 34.140667, 33.068, 31.493238, 31.208516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }