{ "ticker": { "uuid": "57b64247-0f78-4536-88f4-c48d81ab6634", "symbol": "CJT", "name": "Cargojet Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 2.052, "architecture_energy": 11.272, "architecture_maturity": 22.862, "architecture_confidence": 70.045, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.51, "rotation_up": 34.43, "upward_expansion": 37.56, "deceleration": 29.22, "rotation_down": 21.46, "downward_expansion": 41.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 85.848665, 85.266315, 84.077563, 84.358697 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 86.809998, "trend_reference": 85.884301, "distance_from_trend": 0.010778, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 100.137454, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.133092, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.791215, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.086087, "excess_performance": -0.206509, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010778, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019445, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.133092, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065547, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.107912, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093026, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.086087, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.883598, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 283100, "relative_activity": 0.981827, "balance": 1.883598, "dry_up": 1.022664, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045734, "annualized_volatility": 0.237775, "from_high_reference": -0.164899, "from_low_reference": 0.335229 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 85.884301, "fair_value_reference": 100.137454, "structural_low": 74.910101, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.037453, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.057882, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.237024, "worst_return": -0.216277, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.03538, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.061068, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.148606, "worst_return": -0.170565, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.131328, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.148733, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.836768, "energy": 19.203599, "activity_lines": [ 85.615333, 84.506585, 83.306541, 84.439012 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 85.470001, "volume": 266500, "typical_volume": 314160.0, "trend": 86.021045, "fair_value": 100.204077, "relative_strength": -11.174127, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.781338, "energy": 21.647698, "activity_lines": [ 85.892666, 84.774345, 83.536306, 84.40457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 84.489998, "volume": 267300, "typical_volume": 297035.0, "trend": 85.989985, "fair_value": 100.15808, "relative_strength": -11.122589, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.168827, "energy": 18.887932, "activity_lines": [ 85.586665, 84.810187, 83.696112, 84.305793 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 86.809998, "volume": 283100, "typical_volume": 288340.0, "trend": 85.884301, "fair_value": 100.137454, "relative_strength": -10.791215, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.051626, "energy": 11.271813, "activity_lines": [ 85.848665, 85.266315, 84.077563, 84.358697 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }