{ "ticker": { "uuid": "57b7b989-b1b3-4d6f-956c-09aa74c195bb", "symbol": "OP5E", "name": "OSSIAM BLOOMBERG JAPAN PAB NR", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.412, "architecture_energy": 41.95, "architecture_maturity": 64.875, "architecture_confidence": 78.889, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.36, "rotation_up": 41.29, "upward_expansion": 68.17, "deceleration": 85.48, "rotation_down": 27.51, "downward_expansion": 18.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 185.012001, 185.402182, 181.690572, 177.563141 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 189.660004, "trend_reference": 172.663334, "distance_from_trend": 0.098438, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 144.496173, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.312561, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.344819, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.146813, "excess_performance": 0.082174, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.098438, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064413, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.312561, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069299, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.073448, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050326, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.146813, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.740251, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1789, "relative_activity": 0.527978, "balance": 0.740251, "dry_up": 0.448294, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029381, "annualized_volatility": 0.19826, "from_high_reference": -0.002524, "from_low_reference": 0.324441 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 172.663334, "fair_value_reference": 144.496173, "structural_low": 153.360001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.014219, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.015503, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.059577, "worst_return": -0.027001, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.01666, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.001784, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.196412, "worst_return": -0.0719, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.023659, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.031397, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.097154, "worst_return": -0.077518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.019439, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.012455, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.202091, "worst_return": -0.131516, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062791, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002704, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.001134, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029069, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043526, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013177, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048873, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052916, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013024, 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.010046, "energy": 62.544006, "activity_lines": [ 185.889333, 184.405819, 178.638954, 174.826668 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 183.259995, "volume": 607, "typical_volume": 3391.35, "trend": 170.787334, "fair_value": 143.657198, "relative_strength": 9.546292, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.456231, "energy": 53.798446, "activity_lines": [ 184.666665, 184.60509, 179.601143, 175.695958 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 181.800003, "volume": 1033, "typical_volume": 3436.05, "trend": 171.731334, "fair_value": 144.050275, "relative_strength": 6.057761, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.889145, "energy": 37.2259, "activity_lines": [ 183.363999, 184.341091, 180.321144, 176.406452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 189.660004, "volume": 1789, "typical_volume": 3388.4, "trend": 172.663334, "fair_value": 144.496173, "relative_strength": 7.344819, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.411775, "energy": 41.949608, "activity_lines": [ 185.012001, 185.402182, 181.690572, 177.563141 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }