{ "ticker": { "uuid": "57b86b8b-37c0-404e-88fd-08270e6f0821", "symbol": "600059", "name": "Zhejiang Guyuelongshan Shaoxing Wine Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.272, "architecture_energy": 26.207, "architecture_maturity": 98.081, "architecture_confidence": 76.294, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.96, "rotation_up": 27.69, "upward_expansion": 21.53, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 25.66, "downward_expansion": 57.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.905333, 7.800592, 7.978255, 8.267354 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.9, "trend_reference": 8.667153, "distance_from_trend": -0.088513, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.966824, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.118975, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.56326, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.22549, "excess_performance": -0.182286, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.088513, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055865, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.118975, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059185, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.125633, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063486, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.22549, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.51658, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41672908, "relative_activity": 1.258382, "balance": 0.51658, "dry_up": 1.430878, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049319, "annualized_volatility": 0.167162, "from_high_reference": -0.306409, "from_low_reference": 0.07483 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.667153, "fair_value_reference": 8.966824, "structural_low": 7.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.005698, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": -0.006338, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.134807, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.055061, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.008609, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.251323, "worst_return": -0.137542, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.029823, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.017149, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.162162, "worst_return": -0.10568, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.167584, "energy": 63.991761, "activity_lines": [ 7.664008, 7.745959, 8.097273, 8.42805 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.69, "volume": 47443816, "typical_volume": 33181284.35, "trend": 8.74782, "fair_value": 9.000143, "relative_strength": -13.138866, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.342107, "energy": 55.642248, "activity_lines": [ 7.685333, 7.712978, 8.027823, 8.356406 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.18, "volume": 51931102, "typical_volume": 33399979.85, "trend": 8.712486, "fair_value": 8.984506, "relative_strength": -7.493845, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.442925, "energy": 34.932761, "activity_lines": [ 7.868, 7.782024, 8.013515, 8.319772 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.9, "volume": 41672908, "typical_volume": 33116265.2, "trend": 8.667153, "fair_value": 8.966824, "relative_strength": -12.56326, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.272418, "energy": 26.206652, "activity_lines": [ 7.905333, 7.800592, 7.978255, 8.267354 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }