{ "ticker": { "uuid": "57b88756-5911-4285-b012-8746681862ef", "symbol": "KGEN", "name": "King Gen Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.217, "architecture_energy": 20.595, "architecture_maturity": 65.472, "architecture_confidence": 93.648, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.17, "rotation_up": 19.25, "upward_expansion": 53.27, "deceleration": 93.85, "rotation_down": 33.07, "downward_expansion": 21.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.746667, 1.82, 1.754667, 1.648946 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.63, "trend_reference": 1.508, "distance_from_trend": 0.080902, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.101987, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.479146, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 18.635867, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.369748, "excess_performance": 0.177423, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080902, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.236066, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.479146, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029512, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.186359, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190109, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.369748, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.167042, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 88528800, "relative_activity": 1.752518, "balance": 1.167042, "dry_up": 1.337376, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134025, "annualized_volatility": 0.613611, "from_high_reference": -0.303419, "from_low_reference": 2.326531 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.508, "fair_value_reference": 1.101987, "structural_low": 1.09, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.174497, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.130017, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.033149, "worst_return": -0.252066, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.04, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.034405, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.016529, "worst_return": -0.493671, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.18, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.212457, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.115702, "worst_return": -0.556962, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.619835, 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"2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.165354, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.299213, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.107595, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.408451, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"typical_volume": 41584160.0, "trend": 1.454667, "fair_value": 1.086795, "relative_strength": 33.671428, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.325876, "energy": 50.388765, "activity_lines": [ 1.9, 1.86, 1.716905, 1.597785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.8, "volume": 97556600, "typical_volume": 45789080.0, "trend": 1.476333, "fair_value": 1.092372, "relative_strength": 31.664622, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.298409, "energy": 32.750255, "activity_lines": [ 1.854, 1.862364, 1.738238, 1.620065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.79, "volume": 17772200, "typical_volume": 46212005.0, "trend": 1.496, "fair_value": 1.098013, "relative_strength": 30.769082, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.784676, "energy": 26.687188, "activity_lines": [ 1.812, 1.857818, 1.755381, 1.640301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.63, "volume": 88528800, "typical_volume": 50515195.0, "trend": 1.508, "fair_value": 1.101987, "relative_strength": 18.635867, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.216957, "energy": 20.594716, "activity_lines": [ 1.746667, 1.82, 1.754667, 1.648946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }