{ "ticker": { "uuid": "57c08204-9b85-453e-a2c9-0976711fdac1", "symbol": "PLOW", "name": "Douglas Dynamics Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 71.775, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 16.459, "architecture_energy": 16.909, "architecture_maturity": 52.919, "architecture_confidence": 88.969, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.61, "rotation_up": 19.91, "upward_expansion": 48.71, "deceleration": 90.15, "rotation_down": 43.79, "downward_expansion": 30.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.607333, 46.06725, 46.000224, 45.236292 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 44.36, "trend_reference": 43.767858, "distance_from_trend": 0.013529, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.177787, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.520335, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.974367, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.113602, "excess_performance": -0.012023, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013529, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.125296, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.520335, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11314, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.029744, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151329, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.113602, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.561974, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2734465, "relative_activity": 2.189643, "balance": 1.561974, "dry_up": 1.389966, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095475, "annualized_volatility": 0.38219, "from_high_reference": -0.193455, "from_low_reference": 0.590207 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.767858, "fair_value_reference": 29.177787, "structural_low": 38.6801, 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 44.62, "volume": 1066551, "typical_volume": 1143093.3, "trend": 42.643313, "fair_value": 28.849697, "relative_strength": 9.35685, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.247687, "energy": 26.361204, "activity_lines": [ 46.875333, 46.998931, 46.075462, 44.883304 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.18, "volume": 1867415, "typical_volume": 1166663.6, "trend": 43.084733, "fair_value": 28.972045, "relative_strength": 13.154188, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.428565, "energy": 18.232379, "activity_lines": [ 46.189333, 46.950995, 46.19035, 45.111478 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.13, "volume": 1274829, "typical_volume": 1171898.0, "trend": 43.470648, "fair_value": 29.073468, "relative_strength": 6.399988, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.813114, "energy": 19.44037, "activity_lines": [ 45.034667, 46.49007, 46.09341, 45.178914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.36, "volume": 2734465, "typical_volume": 1248818.0, "trend": 43.767858, "fair_value": 29.177787, "relative_strength": 2.974367, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.459213, "energy": 16.908677, "activity_lines": [ 44.607333, 46.06725, 46.000224, 45.236292 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }